Cowboy Up Baseball: AL MVP - Update: ESPN: Rob Neyer

Jeter the best choice for AL MVP, Neyer's mailbag article.

"Is Jeter clearly the MVP this season? He is not. Here are VORPs (value over replacement player) and win shares for my top five candidates, and two others often mentioned ...

         VORP  WS
Hafner   81.4  24
Ortiz    73.3  27
Jeter    73.0  31
Sizemore 71.2  24
Mauer    63.3  29
Morneau  52.1  27
Thomas   40.3  21

VORP incorporates defensive position, but not skill. Win shares consider defensive value. Jeter is not a good shortstop, but he does get credit for playing shortstop well enough to ... well, for playing well enough to play. If you know what I mean. Jeter currently ranks No. 1 in the American League in win shares and No. 3 in VORP, and nobody else can claim a combination as impressive. In my opinion, the only obvious alternative to Jeter is Joe Mauer, who takes a hit in both measures because, as a catcher, he plays only five or six times per week. If you want to argue that Jeter's not "valuable" because the Yankees have a big lead, Justin Morneau is your guy. As for Morneau ... yeah, he's a great hitter. But, umm, guys? He's 18th in the league in on-base percentage, sixth in the league in slugging average, seventh in OPS. He's a first baseman. A decent first baseman, but a first baseman nonetheless. Essentially, a vote for Morneau over Mauer is an argument that nothing matters except driving in runs for a postseason team. Granted, that's always been a popular argument. I don't find it particularly compelling."

VORP

#	NAME	TEAM	POS	LG	YEAR	PA	PA%	AVG	OBP	SLG	SB	CS	MLVr	PMLVr	VORPr	MLV	PMLV	VORP
1.	Albert Pujols	SLN	1b	NL	2006	612	10.1%	.330	.431	.664	6	2	.545	0.399	0.577	77.5	56.7	82.1
2.	Travis Hafner	CLE	dh	AL	2006	564	9.2%	.308	.439	.659	0	0	.523	0.490	0.625	67.9	63.6	81.1
3.	Ryan Howard	PHI	1b	NL	2006	678	10.8%	.316	.420	.670	0	0	.499	0.353	0.527	76.2	54.0	80.5
4.	Derek Jeter	NYA	ss	AL	2006	697	11.1%	.341	.414	.483	32	5	.261	0.310	0.479	41.0	48.7	75.4
5.	Miguel Cabrera	FLO	3b	NL	2006	656	10.9%	.335	.427	.565	9	6	.430	0.362	0.487	66.6	56.0	75.4
6.	David Ortiz	BOS	dh	AL	2006	674	10.7%	.287	.407	.637	1	0	.387	0.351	0.489	58.9	53.4	74.4
7.	Grady Sizemore	CLE	cf	AL	2006	732	11.9%	.290	.376	.534	22	4	.231	0.260	0.414	39.0	43.7	69.7
8.	Lance Berkman	HOU	1b	NL	2006	621	10.2%	.316	.419	.622	3	2	.446	0.323	0.480	64.1	46.3	69.0
9.	Miguel Tejada	BAL	ss	AL	2006	689	11.4%	.332	.380	.505	6	2	.236	0.281	0.413	37.8	45.2	66.4
10.	Carlos Beltran	NYN	cf	NL	2006	595	9.8%	.275	.385	.598	17	3	.325	0.324	0.473	44.8	44.8	65.4
11.	Jim Thome	CHA	dh	AL	2006	598	9.7%	.290	.418	.604	0	0	.368	0.336	0.470	50.7	46.4	64.8
12.	Carlos Guillen	DET	ss	AL	2006	599	10.0%	.317	.399	.524	20	9	.279	0.323	0.457	39.5	45.8	64.7
13.	Joe Mauer	MIN	c	AL	2006	592	9.8%	.349	.432	.503	8	3	.324	0.365	0.467	44.8	50.5	64.6
14.	Jermaine Dye	CHA	rf	AL	2006	607	9.8%	.316	.386	.619	7	3	.371	0.322	0.460	51.9	45.1	64.3
15.	Vladimir Guerrero	ANA	rf	AL	2006	664	11.0%	.328	.381	.551	15	5	.305	0.260	0.404	47.5	40.4	63.0
16.	Chase Utley	PHI	2b	NL	2006	713	11.4%	.310	.379	.528	13	4	.241	0.255	0.389	38.7	40.9	62.4
17.	Manny Ramirez	BOS	lf	AL	2006	554	8.8%	.318	.437	.612	0	1	.434	0.363	0.495	54.3	45.4	61.9
18.	Vernon Wells	TOR	cf	AL	2006	659	10.9%	.306	.360	.550	16	4	.215	0.241	0.387	33.1	37.2	59.5
19.	Jose Reyes	NYN	ss	NL	2006	691	11.4%	.301	.353	.491	63	17	.156	0.179	0.357	25.1	28.8	57.2
20.	Garrett Atkins	COL	3b	NL	2006	668	10.9%	.322	.398	.551	3	0	.289	0.221	0.357	44.6	34.1	55.2
21.	Matt Holliday	COL	lf	NL	2006	642	10.5%	.330	.389	.589	9	5	.336	0.237	0.368	49.9	35.2	54.6
22.	Justin Morneau	MIN	1b	AL	2006	641	10.6%	.325	.381	.570	3	3	.311	0.193	0.365	46.6	28.9	54.6
23.	David Wright	NYN	3b	NL	2006	645	10.6%	.310	.381	.531	20	5	.268	0.200	0.351	40.2	30.0	52.6
24.	Nick Johnson	WAS	1b	NL	2006	628	10.3%	.290	.428	.520	10	3	.322	0.176	0.358	46.9	25.7	52.2
25.	Brian Mccann	ATL	c	NL	2006	475	7.8%	.332	.389	.569	2	0	.353	0.375	0.470	38.9	41.3	51.8

Win Shares

Year	Last	First	Tm	Lg	Pos	Batting	Pitching	Fielding	ExpWS	WSP	WSAB	Total WS	CWS
2006	Jeter	D	NYA	AL	SS	27.1	0.0	4.5	17	.903	19	31	276
2006	Mauer	J	MIN	AL	C	20.0	0.0	8.6	15	.945	18	29	58
2006	Ramirez	M	BOS	AL	OF	26.2	0.0	2.0	14	.990	18	28	338
2006	Ortiz	D	BOS	AL	DH	27.1	0.0	0.1	12	1.067	18	27	135
2006	Morneau	J	MIN	AL	1B	24.8	0.0	1.8	16	.789	15	27	46
2006	Dye	J	CHA	AL	OF	23.2	0.0	2.6	15	.824	15	26	135
2006	Ibanez	R	SEA	AL	OF	21.6	0.0	3.1	17	.710	12	25	101
2006	Sizemore	G	CLE	AL	OF	20.3	0.0	3.5	18	.647	11	24	54
2006	Santana	J	MIN	AL	SP	-0.1	24.0	0.0	12	.973	17	24	104
2006	Thome	J	CHA	AL	DH	23.9	0.0	0.0	11	1.049	16	24	306

Cowboy Up's Take:
Neyer is a stats guy and a stronger believer in SABR #'s like Win Share & VORP, which are great indication stats. Jeter has a case in regard of WS & VORP over Mauer & Morneau, as shown above. Does he deserve the AL MVP from these stats that he's put up all season? Yes, although, like Neyer noted, "he is not [clearly]the MVP this season". The award is awarded based on subjective slection, nonetheless. If MIN overtakes DET in the last 6gms of the season & wins AL Central, Mauer & Morneau should be much credited. Whether the AL Central Champion will help either of the Twins to win the MVP, it's a tough call. Morneau is Cowboy Up Baseball's MVP, simply because he lived the definition of "Cowboy Up" in critical times of his team & performed the way that exceeds expectaions.

On Tradesports.com, where people (traders) bid & sell future contracts on events, Jeter is heavily favored currently:

Contract BQty Bid Offer AQty Last Vol Chge