Wednesday, October 04, 2006

ALDS Notes DET vs. NYY Game 1

Robertson made a mistake with an inside pitch that was high but not inside enough, Giambi hit it out as a flyball out in most other parks but at Yankee Stadium it's a Home-Run.

DET was trying to make a statement about their aggressiveness and eager to win the game. Tigers want to be aggressive with base stealing & hit-and-run's to generate runs against the top-run-producing NYY lineup.

Key Scoring Opportunity (Missed)
On top of the 2nd inning, Tigers led off the inning with a double by Ordóñez and followed by a walk to Guillén. 6th hitter, Rodríguez who hits .300AVG & .332OBP this season, at the plate. After a 0-1 count, Tigers attemped to double-steal 2nd & 3rd. Ordóñez on 2nd did not get a good jump and pitcher, Wang threw a hard sinking fastball inside to right-handed hitter at the plate. Ordóñez was easily threw out at 3rd base. Rodríguez stroke out with the at-bat, the 2nd out of the inning, withou moving the 2nd base runner, Guillén to 3rd. DET didn't score any runs in that inning.

Having a speedy runner at 3rd with 2 outs facing a sinker pitcher and a catcher notoriously known for pass ball issues is a run-scoring opportunity without a hit. Balls could have bounced to the backstop and the 3rd base runner could have scored.

The double-steal play by Tigers is a rather unwise decision. Wang throws strikes and facing a 1-0 count, Tigers should have opted to double-steal on a better count (e.g. 2-0 or 2-1) and/or in a later count as a surprise. The runner on 2nd, Ordóñez has average speed at best. He didn't get a good jump off the pitcher at all. However, because double-steal was called, he had to go. With the 6th batter up and a hitter who can hit, using double-steal isn't an optimal startegy to generate runs. Posada behind the plate throws out 37% of base-stealers this year, which is in the top-tier of catchers. The strategy didn't work because of the runner's speed on 2nd base and the count for the hitter. If DET wanted to generate runs, the hitter should have been asked to bunt to move the runners to 2nd & 3rd. Follow-up batters, Monroe & Thame are fly-balls hitters who could easily hit sacrifice fly to score at least a run. Tigers should have more confidence in their 6th batter in that situation, too.

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