Playoff Snapshot - NL

STL vs. SD (reg. season head-to-head record: SD 4-2)
Game 1: at SD
Tue, Oct 3 - 4:05 pm EDT
C. Carpenter vs. J. Peavy
Game 2: at SD
Thu, Oct 5 - 4:05 pm EDT
J. Suppan vs. C. Young
Game 3: at STL
Sat, Oct 7 - TBA
*Game 4: at STL
Sun, Oct 8 - TBA * - If necessary
*Game 5: at SD
Mon, Oct 9 - TBA * - If necessary


STL barely held onto its AL Central crown in the last week of regular season with mediocre pitching & inconsistent hitter performances. STL has the Cy-Young grade ace in Carpenter, but after him, there aren't much solid arms at all. Same thing with Cardinals' offense, Pujlos put up another MVP-level slugger season, but he doesn't have much support and protection around him in the line-up. STL needs its offense to go to work to have a sound chance to win the series without the home-field advantage. Apart from Carpenter, STL's starters of Marquis, Suppan, and Jeff Weaver (sorry, he's nothing like the younger Jered) aren't going to put any decent hitters away. Guys like Rolen, Encarnación, Edmonds & Duncan need to step up big time in the playoff to protect Pujlos. Opposing pitchers aren't going to pitch to Amazin' Albert in October, guaranteed.

SD has a strong starting rotation in young ace, Peavy, great-trade-return, Young, and experienced pitchers, Woody Williams and Wells. Padres' 5th starter, rookie, Hensley won't be starting, but his decent regular season #'s should give warnings to opposing teams when he comes into middle relief in the playoff (187inn, 122K, 76BB, 3.71ERA, 1.34WHIP, & .250 opp. AVG). Padres' superior bullpen is another advantage in the playoff. The company of Linebrink, Adkins, Embree, Meredith, Cassidy, Brian Sweeney, and the all-time saves record holder, Hoffman should put fears into opposing hitters in late-innings. SD doesn't have any big-time sluggers (no one has >25HR), significantly due to its large PetCo Park dimensions. They have the doubles hitters that won't make outfielders' job easy out there (they'd be running around after the ball like canines in PetCo...). Experienced hitters like Brian Giles and Piazza, plus young stars, Adrián González & Khalil Greene should get enough hits off the almost-AAA-like STL pitchers (not include Carpenter, you already know that, of course). Roberts, Cameron, & Barfield will be running when they are on base, which could help generate runs with this average Padres line-up.

STL won't have enough solid starters to get them deep into the series. SD will be squeezing runs out of those no-where-dominating pitchers (STL got some bullpen problems with Isringhausen out for the rest-of-season, do you want Braden Looper to close games for you in the playoff??). Only with Carpenter pitching, the Cards have a good shot of winning a game in the series. SD's much superior pitching from starting to finish will ride them through a below-than-normal performing STL club.

COWBOY UP's PICK: SD in 4


LAD vs. NYM (reg. season head-to-head record: NYM 4-3)
Game 1: at NYM
Wed, Oct 4 - 4:05 pm EDT
D. Lowe vs. O. Hernández
Game 2: at NYM
Thu, Oct 5 - 8:05 pm EDT
G. Maddux vs. T. Glavine
Game 3: at LAD
Sat, Oct 7 - TBA
*Game 4: at LAD
Sun, Oct 8 - TBA
*Game 5: at NYM
Mon, Oct 9 - TBA

NYM is in a lot of trouble, really. Pedro is out for rest of the season, below-.500 finish of the regular season for the fastest club to clinch a playoff spot. Mets' bats have been rather inconsistent lately, although, those big-bats of Beltrán, Delgado, and Wright will come alive sometime (hopefully, sooner than never). Mets have to go to a traded El Duque for Gm. 1, that just doesn't give its fans lots of confidence for a team that seemed to be World Series Championship-bound.

LAD has a much stronger starting rotation in Lowe, Penny, and Maddux. Lowe has an All-Star year and Penny was Cy Young-worthy before the All-Star break. Penny has been struggling since the summer and that should be a concern for the Dodgers. Maddux has been a great trade pick-up for LAD; Mad Dog won't blow any hitters away, but pitching in pitcher-friendly parks like Shea & Dodger Stadium will give him the edge he needs. Kuo, the rookie starter will be the X-Factor in the series. If he could just be good enough like his short regular season experience, LAD will cruise through NYM. LAD's closer, Saito has been a positive surprise of the bullpen. Young relievers like Broxton & Beimel will be important once the starters come out of the games.

NYM has one of the best bullpen this season. You could put a guy with 75-mph fastballs with no off-speed's, he would probably excel as a middle-relief guy for the Mets this year. Mets really need solid starts from old-timers, Glavine, Hernández, and Trachsel to utilize its powerful bullpen. Mets' offense is arguably the best and the most complete in the NL. With José Reyes leading off, who can bunt for hits & steal his way around the bases, Mets will have sufficient run-scoring opportunities. Experienced hitters in Shawn Green, Floyd, and José Valentín will provide the occsional pop and drive in runs with x-base hits.

It comes down to NYM's hitting & LAD's starting pitching in this closely matched series. Mets' home-field advantage will give them the home-crowd support they need and push them past the west-coast forebear-club. LAD's just-better-than-average offense won't be shut out by the Mets. Pitching is all that matters in the playoff. Mets' "amazin'" bullpen won't be much of a use if they trail on the scoreboard. LAD's better starters will give them the series winning factor.

COWBOY UP's PICK: LAD in 5