Moneyball Talk

Moneyball by Michael Lewis is one of the most fascinating baseball books, ever! Many would probably agree with me on this. There are two players featured in the book that deserve to be highlighted this season: Mark Teahen and Andre Ethier. Both players, who were just prospects are no longer with OAK. They were traded away for veteran players a couple of seasons ago and that actually gave Teahen and Ethier the opportunities to play everyday for KCR & LAD, respectively.

Bill Simmons, The Sports Guy took a shot at OAK and its "Moneyball" concept in his American breakdown article.
"(By the way, I loved "Moneyball," but doesn't it take a hit in the historical sense because there were entire chapters devoted to Billy Beane's genius for coming up with guys like Scott Hatteberg, Jeremy Brown and Chad Bradford? Thank God for Nick Swisher -- he saved the book from retroactively ranking in the 90s on the Unintentional Comedy Scale. And frankly, there's still time.)"

Although, he did get corrected by his reader about some ex-A's players who are still putting up strong numbers in his most recent mailbag. Teahen and Ethier still haven't gotten enough positive attention for their undervalued strong performances this season.

Q: You poked fun at "Moneyball" saying that all the players profiled (other than Nick Swisher) have been complete failures. Scott Hatteburg is hitting .325/.418/.498 for the Reds this year, making less than $1 million. Can't argue with those numbers at that salary, exactly the point of "Moneyball." Not everyone can have a $200 million payroll, or $120 (million) like the "tortured" Red Sox.
--Nick, Cincinnati

SG: Very good point. I haven't been following the National League for the same reasons that I don't follow the International League and the Pacific Coast League, so I didn't realize Hatteberg was having such a good season. Actually, so is Chad Bradford for the Mets. Just a little more research and I would have been right back in that thing. Look, don't forget that I'm an idiot. Don't forget this for a second.

Teahen has come a long way since he was traded to the lowly Royals. His glove needs some more work, but he is starting to develop some very good power. He is currently leading KCR with HR with 16 (it's not that many, but it's the Royals we're talking about here). His OBP of .367 is very good and he has been on fire since the All-Star break: .340AVG, .402OBP, .660SLG, 9HR & 32RBI in 40 gm. He may be a better hitter than Eric Chavez whom OAK kept as a free agent at 3rd base. Teahen gets enough walks to fit in any Bill James-focused teams. He may be just the next true All-Star in KC for years to come.


Ethier is another undervalued player that you won't hear much about. With an OBP of .381 &.539SLG, he surely deserves some praises. Plus, he is an above-average corener outfielder who gets good jumps on balls and has a decent arm. He may not not a 30HR & 100+RBI OF, but he can hit for good average. He may need to take some more BBs to pump that healthy OBP even higher. So far this season, he'd have been a better LF than Jay Payton.

If OAK had a lineup of Nick Swisher (another Moneyball stud), Teahen, and Ethier and not signed Esteban Loaiza (they'd have had a 1st round pick in this year's draft; they could have got Kenny Rogers & Chad Bardford), the A's would be a real threat deep into the post-season.

Would you ever ask a #4 hitter to bunt?

Seeing GGOW, Youkilis batting 4th last night vs. LAA just make Tito Francona look even a worse manager. After asking Youk to BUNT in a critical bottom of the 9th inn. with runners on 1st & 2nd with no outs, the "bunter" is batting clean-up with the regular slugger, Manny Ramirez out of the lineup. It's difficult to imagine any other hitters who could bat 4th in the lineup would be asked to bunt in similar situations. Would Jim Thome be asked to bunt with runners on 1st & 2nd? Would Albert Pujols be asked to bunt in that situation (Pujlos usually bats 3rd, but you can't argue that he can't be a great #4 hitter)?

If Francona believed that Youkilis is not a guy who can get a hit in the critical situation or even hit the ball to the right-side, why should he be trusted as a #4 hitter in the lineup? GGOW deserves better than this. He has the 11th best OBP @ .390, btw.

SI's Tom Verducci on Red Sox

http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2006/writers/tom_verducci/08/22/sox/

Another point Verducci didn't mention, look at the prospects BOS traded away before the season:
Hanley Ramírez

Anibal Sánchez

Andy Marte

Ramirez proves to be a decent hitter with speed in the major league (.272.AVG, .341OBP, 12HR, 40SB). Sanchez is a solid starter and can be a valuable #4 staff on a contending team (65+inn, 10GS, 3.44ERA, 1.27WHIP, .225 opp avg, although the #'s come from a weaker hitting NL league). Marte still needs some more seasoning and may not be MLB-ready as many thought.

Just imagine BOS had Ramirez in the lineup everyday batting leadoff (it's a much better option than Crisp) and Sanchez starting instead of Johnson or Snyder...

GGOW bunting?

Red Sox looks like they are done at this point. No AL East champ, no wild card, no pitching...

Tonight (last night, really, 8-20, since the gm went on 'til 1AM+) the Red Sox could try to stop the bleeding, but their AA pitching haunted them, AGAIN!

There are many things that happened in the game that coulb be radio talkshow discussions. Like how Francona went to Javier Lopez (like Jon Miller said, BOS got ALL the "Javy Lopez's") to face Abreu and after he was walked, Terry went to his closer, Papelbon (who hasnt pitched in 3 days, so he could go for 2 inn).

This ONE particular play called by BOS coaches asking Youkilis (aka the Greek God Of Walks, btw, he was 2-4 in the gm and just singled to drive in a run before this at-bat) to BUNT with runners on 1st & 2nd at the bottom of 9th inn with no outs. BTW, the runner on 2nd is Ortiz (Big Papi), who isn't even an average-speed runner (no offense, Papi, you are the best cluth hitter ALL-TIME).

WHY THE HECK WOULD YOU EVER ASK YOUKILIS TO BUNT, EVER???!!!???

It's understandable that with the gm tied, having runners on 1st & 2nd and no outs, it makes sense to bunt the runners over to 2nd & 3rd and a sac fly could win the gm. HOWEVER (borrowing from Stephan A. Smith's vocabulary), everyone knows that Youilis is NOT a bunter. Big Papi may be a even better bunter than Youkilis (since Ortiz came up with MIN organization, everyone has to learn how to hit to opposite field & bunt). It would make more sense to ask Youl to work a walk or to hit a groundball to the right-side. If BOS wanted to bunt the runners over, why didn't they get Kapler off te bench to bunt???

Youk ended up bunting the ball striaght back to the middle and runner is out at 3rd. BOS didn't score at the bottom of the 9th with PH Hinske striking out and Mirabelli grounding out.

Bad pitching and injuries is one thing, making dumb manager moves is another. Asking a guy who hit in the middle of the line-up in college and probably in the minors to bunt and who happens to be the Greek God of Walks just doesn't make any logical sense. It's one thing to move the runners over on the bases, it's another to ask a guy who doesn't bunt well to bunt. Even if Youk ground into a DP, a runner would still be on 3rd and can score on a hit or wild pitch or even pass ball (the Posada special, how many times could this guy turn his catcher's mitt over and let the ball get pass him in the major league?). BOS didn't get another hit or walk after having runners on 1st & 2nd with no outs. The most "un-clutch" (if it wasn't a word before tonight, Red Sox definately came up with it after this weekend) hitting would still score a run with no outs and 1st & 2nd.

Red Sox is playing like a AA team right now. The Pawtucket Red Sox might have been a better team this weekend.

I'm just a lil' ahead of the curve

Yahoo!'s "fantasy guru", Scott Pianowski on young pitchers...

http://fantasysports.yahoo.com/analysis/news?slug=fantguru-mlbwire&prov=fantguru&type=lgns&league=fantasy/mlb

I've mentioned a couple of those guys like Maine, Saunders, Jennings already. He's usually not that bad when it comes to fantasy advice.

P.S.Thankfully, I don't look anything like him.

Scouting Report: Garza

Matt Garza, MIN

This young stud made his major league debut tonight vs. TOR, the best hitting AL club. (Garza did hold minor leaguers to ~.175 opp. avg vs. him)
Here are a few points about him:

• 4 pitches (only saw 3 tonight: 92-96mph 4-seam fastball, 3-6 curve, 76-78mph changeup)
• good movements on fastballs, side-to-side movement off delivery, good zaps going into the strikezone
• can pich high in the strike zone, ~93mph 4-seam fastball
• only throws curve when ahead in the count (one curve with 2-2 count and one with 2-0); curves are thrown away down from right-handed hitters
• two moves when pitching from the stretch: one big leg kick and a short slide step that is used more of the time
• pitches away from left-handed hitters, mostly just fastballs, not many off-speed's
• misses fastballs high and the inside corners at times and gets hit hard
• may have a problem getting left-handed hitters when misses the outside fastballs

Garza has good stuff, which is easy to see after striking the first 2 hitters in the gm with nice curves (think Roy Oswalt-like #2's). He needs some more polishing on his off-speed's, especially his change-up's; his change-up is decent, but doesn't look like he can throw them for strikes consistently. His fastballs have good movements and can get the high strikes middle up or up inside , ~94mph. His #'s tonight vs. TOR may not look too prettty, but he's got good enough stuff to be a good SP in the big league. Welcome to the MLB!

Jennings, the real 1st rounder

Jason Jennings, COL
The 1st round pick back in '99 is having a solid season. All the rumors (whether they are true or not, George Mitchell may want to look into that after talking to Dusty Baker) about the humidor & "wet & heavy" balls @ Coors or NOT. He's pitching well on the road, as well as at home.

Tonight vs. LAD in the city of Angeles
7 inn: 6H, 3BB, 5K, gave up 2ER

His #'s before tonight's gm:

G	GS	W	L	SV	CG	SHO	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	K	ERA	WHIP	BAA
Home		11	11	4	3	0	2	1	78.0	73	27	26	8	28	60	3.00	1.29	.252
Away		12	12	3	6	0	1	1	79.2	78	38	35	6	26	51	3.95	1.31	.257

If he keeps this up, he and Francis may formed a nice 1-2 punch for the Rockies for years to come. The only weakness in his #s is his BBs; if he can walk less guys and keeping guys hitting only ~.250, he will be fun to watch.

Yahoo!'s (DET's) Todd Jones on Mound Visits

"One of the great visits by a pitching coach occurred in 1991, when Mark Portugal was pitching for the Astros and Bob Cluck was his pitching coach. In a game at Cincinnati, Portugal gave up back-to-back-to-back homers with fireworks exploding after each one. So Cluck strolled out to the mound after the third homer. Portugal was livid and asked Cluck what he was doing out there. Cluck replied that he was just giving the guy time to reload the fireworks."

http://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/news;_ylt=Ao8d.bD2DvY2GbpcTFxHnekRvLYF?slug=theartofthemoundvisit&prov=tsn&type=lgns

You gotta wonder if Mr. Jones spends a little too much writing instead of working on his 2-strike pitch...

All kidding aside, he's got 31 SVs and is an entertaining writer who pounds out good articles.

My favorite: when Crash Davis visited Nuke on the mound after a bomb in Bull Durham
"Man that ball got outta here in a hurry. I mean anything travels that far oughta have a damn stewardess on it, don't you think?"

Got Burns?

It's Joe Mauer Sideburns Giveaway Night @ MIN!
BTW, it's also Singles Night, too...

Another CLE slugger?

Ryan Garko, CLE
2 for 3, 1st MLB HR tonight in a blowout vs. LAA
This kid 's got some pop in his bat. A C/1B guy (not like CLE doesn't have enough of those, he may have switch position if he's staying in CLE with Victor Martinez playing some 1B now) Probably not going to be a .300 at the MLB level. Strikes out a little too much (66SOs in 363ABs in AAA this year). He's got the power to hit 25+HRs with a full-season ABs. (15HRs, .421 SLG in AAA) This 3rd round pick, Standford product may find himself as an everyday player if he has a position to play next season. Will need to learn to take some more BBs; he's got a pretty good eye already. .248 AVG but a decent .353OBP before call-up. Keep an eye on this young hitter!

Year	Team Name	League	Age	Org.	Level	G	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	SB	CS	BB	SO	HBP	IBB	SH	SF	DP	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
2000	Stanford University	NCAA	19		NCAA	25	42	5	6	2	0	0	1	0	0	7	4	5		0	0	2	.143	.333	.190	523
2001	Stanford University	NCAA	20		NCAA	59	201	42	74	16	1	7	43	0	1	22	22	12		1	6	5	.368	.448	.562	1010
2002	Stanford University	NCAA	21		NCAA	65	239	68	75	18	0	14	55	2	1	38	24	16		0	7	15	.314	.430	.565	995
2003	Stanford University	NCAA	22		NCAA	69	259	64	104	24	0	18	92	2	1	28	17	12		8	0	10	.402	.482	.703	1185
	Mahoning Valley	NYPL	22	Cle	A-	45	165	23	45	8	1	4	16	1	1	12	19	4	0	2	0	5	.273	.337	.406	743
2004	Kinston	Caro	23	Cle	A+	65	238	44	78	17	1	16	57	4	1	26	34	15	3	0	1	6	.328	.425	.609	1034
	Akron	East	23	Cle	AA	43	172	29	57	15	0	6	38	1	0	14	28	6	0	0	2	3	.331	.397	.523	920
	Buffalo	IL	23	Cle	AAA	6	24	3	9	1	0	0	7	0	0	2	4	0	0	0	2	0	.375	.393	.417	810
2005	Buffalo	IL	24	Cle	AAA	127	452	75	137	25	3	19	77	1	3	44	92	18	2	2	4	11	.303	.384	.498	882

Minor League Totals - 3 Season(s)

286

1051

174

326

66

5

45

195

7

5

98

177

43

5

4

9

25

.310

.389

.511

900

BOS Lost 5th Straight

Is this possible with Schilling on the mound? To KCR?!?

Swept by the Royals?

BOS bats are just not coming through when they are needed. BOS managed only 7H vs. Runelvys Hernández, who has opp. .338 avg & 8.54 ERA before tonight's gm. Wily Mo & Mirabelli at least did their parts by HRs. Is Loretta's elbow (hit by pitch earlier in the week) really bothering him? 0 for last 10ABs.

Curt didn't have his "A" game, either. 11H for 7 inn.

Somebody gotta STEP UP and DO SOMETHING about this losing streak. BOS just doesn't look like they have "IT" to win the WC with the way they are playing right now. Terrible 3-7 for last 10 gms.

More on Young Pitchers

Jeremy Sowers, CLE
next start: Sun. 8/13 vs. KCR

Sowers made one start in June, 5 inn 11H, 5ER -- not so pretty
since then, from July: 7 starts, 47+ inn, 47H, 8BB, only 19ER
Not a strikeout pitcher but gets guys out and doesn't walk many. That's always a good indication of how "effective" a pitcher can be. His 1.15 WHIP excluding that one start in June proves that he has good control of his pitches and throws strikes. His track record in '05 in AA indicates that he can be a solid big league pitcher. (82+ inn, 1.01 WHIP, 2.08 ERA, only 9BB in AA) Sowers will still a lot more experience, but this '04 1st rounder will help CLE win some gms.

Joe Saunders, LAA
next start: Fri. 8/11 @ NYY

Saunders, 1st round pick in '02 has won 3 straight this season since his call-up. It may be a little too early to judge how he will turn out at the MLB level. You gotta give him some cred for pitching well so far. Not a big strikeout guy, but doesn't give up hit thusfar in the big. He doesn't have the impressive minor league #'s. before this season. He's having helluah season so far, both in AAA & in MLB. (1.15 WHIP, 38BB in 135 inn in AAA)

Team	From	To	W	L	ERA	G	GS	CG	SHO	SV	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	SO
Salt Lake Bees	04/06	08/01	10	4	2.67	21	20	1	1	0	135.0	117	44	40	12	38	97

He could develop into a solid #3 start for LAA (behind Lackey & the better Weaver, Jered).

ESPN's Jim Caple on Errors

"Error totals have fallen steadily since 1977, dropping from an average of 143 per team to 103 last year. They've dropped by 11 per team just in the last decade. The five lowest error totals for a team have all been since 1999. American League teams are on pace to average less than 100 errors per team for the entire season."

http://sports.espn.go.com/espn/page2/story?page=caple/offbase/060809

Anthony's turning point?

Anthony Reyes, STL is who we are talking about here. He pitched a solid 5 inn vs. CIN today, @ CIN!! Only 2H & 2BB, 81 pitches, 47 strikes. Has the Great Anthony finally arrived for good now?

Reyes has been scouted as the top pitching prospect for STL for couple of years now. Before coming up in MLB earlier this year, he pitched very well in AAA.

Team	From	To	W	L	ERA	G	GS	CG	SHO	SV	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	SO
Memphis Redbirds	04/06	06/22	4	1	3.04	11	11	0	0	0	71.0	61	27	24	9	8	65

Only 8BB & 61H in 71 inn !!! But that's AAA, they don't have Dunn & Griffey down there. In '05, Reyes pitched 128+ inn in AAA and had 1.08 WHIP & 3.64 ERA and 9.51 K9, walked only 34. He definately has proven that he can at least do fine in the big league. The only question left is when will that happen.

After today's gm vs. CIN, this may be the turning point for young Anthony (he's only 24). With an always strong STL lineup and above-avg defense, Reyes has the right environment to develop into a true stud. BTW, has anybody seen Rick Ankiel??
(He's out for the season. Let's hope that he will be back in the big's next year.)

Next, Rich Hill, CHC is starting tomorrow vs. COL. We'll see how he does and determine if he, the young King of the Hill is the next Mulder.

NL East (or just Mets)

The Amazin's won their 69th wins today over SDP! With only 49 gms to go & 13.5 gms over 2nd plaec PHI, the Mets are back! Back in a winning fashsion.

Mets have solid piters like Pedro (of course) and Glavine. Trachsel has been Trachsel, the inning eater and providing "okay" performance every 5th day. The big pleasant surprise has been Maine, the once-stud-prospect of BAL. He's got ~10 more starts and if he can win another 5, he should be the #3 started in the post-season over Trachsel. Not a hard-thrower, but just effective enough to get guys out. It's surprising that Mets has been using Heilman for relief. He should have enough stuff to be a decent #4 starter. Let's hope that this former 1st rounder doesn't get burried in the pen. Wagner has been proving that he is worth the $$ and Bradford has been solid. Leftie specialists Feliciano & Oliver have been stellar, considering their #'s. Mets' pitching definately has it going for them.

With El Duque & Julio providing all the experience a ballclub needs, Mets can making it at least to the NL Championship Series.

Just one more thing, WHY did Mets call up Michael Tucker to replace Floyd (placed on DL)??? Don't they have somebody else better? I think the Mets got enough experience just from Julio himself already. How about giving a young IF a shot @ 2B? Or Alfonzo, why did they sign him & not play him in the major league level?
(BTW, Tucker is only hitting .265, .381 OBP, .411 SLG in AAA)


ATL just doesn't have enough pitching (both starters & relief guys) to compete this season. They started winning some games after a terrible start. Hudson has been a different guy ever since he's been a Brave, possibly because he chnaged his pitching philosophy. It's unlikely that he's been serious injured and whatever mystery injury caused his dramatic under-performance. Tim might have just not been challenging hitters enough and throw too many balls out of the strike zone and hitters aren't chasing his sinkers anymore. I hope that Hudson will regain his strong pitching form next season.

Braves have young hitters who need some more time to develop, particularly Thorman, Matt Diaz, and Langerhans. They could be decent hitters and have proven that they got enough pop to play in the MLB. ATL needs to teach these kids "plate discipline"! Francoeur is a very fun to watch, but watching him swinging at every ball, especially the 1st pitch is just not so fun. He's a stud player (outstanding OF with a big hose and get good jumps on balls), but becoming the next Adam Dunn with a ~.250 AVG is not something a young player should be aiming for. Young Jeff should pick up a copy of "The Science of Hitting" and learn to take a walk when balls are obvious balls.

BOTTOM LINE
It's good to see Mets are back in business after so many years being behind the Braves. NYM needs some good management to guide them deep in the post-season. They got enough tools in young players like Wright & Reyes and enough experience in Pedro, Glavine, Beltran to do well. The only question left is can NYM win 100+ gms?!
YES, they got lots of gms left vs. weak NL East teams. 100+ win for the Amazing's in '06!

Yahoo!'s Jeff Passan on Randy Johnson

"He sounded defeated. He didn't sound much like an ace at all. "

http://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/news?slug=jp-johnson081006&prov=yhoo&type=lgns

Fantasy notes

Hot Corner:

Brad Hawpe, COL is getting hot the last 3 gms:
3 for 4, HR, 2RBI tonight
3 for 6, 2 2Bs before tonight

Mark DeRosa, TEX hit 2 HRs today, 6 RBI!!!
He's eligible at 1B, 2B, 3B, SS, & OFin Yahoo!
It must be a Rangers thing

Luke Scott, HOU needs to be playing more. He has the pop to help HOU's offense. If he plays everyday, he should be on your team! 2 for 5, HR, 2RBI tonight.

The making of studs:
Matt Garza, MIN is the call-up to replace Liriano being on the DL. This '05 1st rounder has been a stud in the minors this year. He's starting 8/11, Fri vs. TOR. If he can do well against TOR's AL leading .289 team hitting, he is for REAL!

Team	From	To	W	L	ERA	G	GS	CG	SHO	SV	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	SO
Fort Myers Miracle	04/06	05/15	5	1	1.42	8	8	0	0	0	44.1	27	13	7	3	11	53
New Britain Rock Cats	05/15	07/13	6	2	2.51	10	10	0	0	0	57.1	40	22	16	2	14	68
Rochester Red Wings	07/14	08/08	3	1	1.85	5	5	2	1	0	34.0	20	7	7	1	7	33

Shin-Soo Choo, CLE is the prospect traded for Broussard from SEA. He is the real deal, much better than Hee-Seop Choi, if you must make the Korean comparison. 3 for 4, RBI, SB tonight. He has the starting job in CLE and should shine without much pressure and can grow with other young stars like Sizemore, Peralta & Marte.

AL East standing

NYY won, BOS lost, and TOR won today...

ALE standing -- NYY: 3 gms over BOS

"Big Unit" looked decent tonight. He may never be able to throw hard (~98mph) again, but just enough to get by. He didn't have any SO's in last 2 starts!!! CHW hitters looked that they just weren't hitting his sliders... You'd think CHW must be pumped today to face the NYY after last night's extra inning walk-off. CHW just hasn't played that well. BTW, DET is probably winning the AL Central for sure at this point with the CHW is playing & MIN losing Liriano.

BOS lost at the bottom of 9th with a 1-run lead... Papelbon blew 2nd gms in a row.

Has Papelbon been "OVER-USED"???

YES!!! Tito can only trust Jonanthan's young right arm all season in the pen. 50th gm already for Pap & over 57 inn pitched already. Still 51 gms to go...

Isn't Julian Tavarez supposed to help out the set-up role with Timlin??!!! He's been a bum all year. Maybe he really screwed up his hand in spring training with that sucker punch to Garthright. Timlin is just old now. Delcarman & Hansen aren't polished enough just yet. Is Javy the answer to Varitek's injury? Most likely not. Lopez is known for his hitting, but he is also known for setting up for pitches too early before delivery. Let's just hope that Javy contribues some offense production.

TOR is pretty much done for the playoff race now. It doesn't look like they will be able to win the wild card with strong plays of MIN & CHW in the 2nd half. So much for the increase payroll. At least they got a guy with the first name "A.J." and another, "B.J.". They should make a trade for C.J. Nitkowski from the PIT now... Okay, i'll stop right here. (Did you know they could have D.J. Carrasco, too? Don't think there's a "E.J." out there.)

BOTTOM LINE

NYY is playing stong as always. Now with a complete lineup with the addition of Abreu & Sheffield + Matsui coming back. They will win the AL East, again, of course. BOS just doesn't have enough pitching to win the East. (David Wells & Clement are just junk at this point. Even Steve Trachsel looks like a much better option compared to these two. Maybe BOS should have signed Will Ferrell when he visited Fenway.)

BOS has lost 4 in a row (TB & KC 2 each)... C'mn. Time to COWBOY UP, as Kevin Millar would say. BELIEVE! BOS can win the WC with ~97 gms. MIN relies too much on Morneau & Mauer's bats, and they will likey cool off at some point. CHW has a complete roster, but can Ozzie make the right management moves and not piss somebody off to win WC?

NYY has the solid starting pitching (Mussina having a great year & Wang becoming the Taiwanese Maddux, even Jaret Wright has been good in last 2 starts) to win ~99 gms.

TOR is off to finding another Nuke LaLoosh in the free agent market.