Saturday, September 30, 2006

Put In Your Vote for MVP on ESPN...

HERE, on the SportsNation MVP Tracker!!

It's not the "official" ballot, of course. It allows you, the fan to speak your mind, though. Go vote!

Voting Results as of 9/28:
Sept. 28 1. Ryan Howard -- 63.9%
2. Albert Pujols -- 26.0%
3. Carlos Beltran -- 10.0%
1. Justin Morneau -- 62.3%
2. Derek Jeter -- 28.7%
3. David Ortiz -- 4.2%
4. Frank Thomas -- 3.6%
5. Jermaine Dye -- 0.8%

ESPN Page2's David Schoenfield on AL MVP

MLB's big questions answered

Mauer is emerging as more of a MVP candidate than Morneau in the last couple of weeks in the media, apparently. Twins may not be able to win AL Central now with one last game left tomorrow. MIN's accomplishment this season should not be overlooked, nonetheless.

Someone start making those "Mauer 4 MVP" t-shirts!!!

Down the Wire - Playoff Race

In AL Central, MIN & DET are currently tied, and DET holds the tiebreaker advantage with a better head-to-head record vs. MIN (11-8). (MIN lost on Sat. & DET is playing KC now, game-in-progrss)

SD & LAD will both make the playoff. The only question left is who wil be the NL West Champ & Wild Card. SD has the better head-to-head record vs. LAD (5-13).

More on official tie-breaker notes.

• If two clubs from the same division are tied but both assured of participating in the postseason, then the first tie-breaker would be their 2006 season-series to determine which club is the division champion and which club is the Wild Card.
• If three clubs finish the season with the same winning percentage and one team will be a division winner and another will be the Wild Card, the games will be played as follows:
» The two teams tied for the division lead will play the one-game tie-breaker, with the winner being declared the division champion.
» The losing team will then play the club from the other division for the Wild Card.

Friday, September 29, 2006

Yahoo!'s Passan on End of Season Awards

Taking a mulligan on awards

Passan picked Jeter & Pujlos as the AL & NL MVP, respectively. He gave his reasons, and they are not bad. CBU will cover NL Cy Young & ROY awards in another blog. They probably won't agree with Jeff's picks, this much promised.

Thursday, September 28, 2006

ESPN's Stark on Overall League Competitiveness

MLB beats NFL in parity debate

Stark appeared on Mike&Mike on ESPN Radio yesterday and offered some interesting insights about the competitive parity among teams in MLB. His blog published later in the day covers his findings.

"If the Cardinals win the NL Central and the Phillies win the NL wild card, eight of the top 10 payrolls in MLB will miss the playoffs this year. The last time that happened: 1993 (the final season in which only four teams made the postseason).

In the meantime, the Nos. 17 (Padres), 19 (Twins) and 21 (A's) payrolls are all going to make the playoffs (with lower payrolls combined than the Yankees). The Reds (No. 22) are still breathing. And good old No. 30 (the Marlins) just finished scaring the living crappola out of the NL wild-card field."

It's good as a fan to know that teams with the bigger payroll are not necessarily the better teams (at least in the context of making the playoff, that's all it matters, isn't it?). As long as your team doesn't make any less-than-intelligent personnel decisions (i.e. draft, free agent, trade, etc.), they can win! Look at DET & MIN this season... As long as the team has some talents (young ones from drafts, especially), they can do something on the field. That may be ATL, ARI, & FLA in NL & CLE & LAA in AL in the next couple of seasons.

Mets In Trouble & Don't Vote for Pedro

Mets' Martinez may miss playoff opener
"Slowed this time by an ailing calf, Martinez said he's got no confidence in his pitches and all but conceded that he won't start in Game 1 of the NL playoffs next week -- if he's able to pitch at all in the opening round."

ESPN's Olney summed it up the best:
Pedro had nothing
"Pedro Martinez was absolutely terrible in his last regular season outing last night, and he said if he were the manager, the decision whether to start him in Game 1 would be easy: He wouldn't do it. I agree, and in fact, if I were the Mets, I'd line up Pedro as the Game 4 starter, after seeing him throw last night. No velocity, no command, nothing. If the Mets wanted to, they could actually drop him out of the playoff rotation altogether and use Orlando Hernandez, Tom Glavine, Steve Trachsel and John Maine, but I'd still want to give Pedro the ball, to see if he could rise to the moment."


Mets will have to look hard into how they are going to approach their 1st round rotation in the playoff. Glavine isn't at his best at this point, either. Does any team really want El Duque or Steve Trachsel as your Game 1 stater?!

Wednesday, September 27, 2006

ESPN's Jayson Stark on .099 batting average

The Antonio Perez Line

It's ironic to see OAK, the MoneyBall team that cherishes walks and OBP having a guy who hits .099AVG & .180OBP all season. Not that Antonio Pérez was called up to be with the major league team for a week, not for a month, but he's been on the OAK's 25-man roster since Opening Day! He had had 91ABs this season; he's a full-time player. Pérez was traded from LAD to OAK with Milton Bradley for Andre Ethier (whom has been discussed here in CUB) at end of '05.

Antonio has nice hands and good defensive skills, which are presumably what A's wanted out of him. His bat all season has just made history according to Stark's article. OAK has Keith Ginter, a 2B and can play some 3B, who played with MIL before traded to OAK in its AAA affiliate. Ginter is not the kind of gloves-man Pérez is, but is not exactly a late-career Chuck Knoblauch or a Jason Giambi at 2B or 3B. OAK could have opted to have Ginter on its roster. The reason being that Eric Chávez has been struggling at the plate much of the season and he has had injuries on both of his arms. Pérez had more experience coming into this season at 3B than a solid-hitting Ginter. D'Ángelo Jiménez is another IF OAK has, but again, he is more of a 2B / SS than 3B. OAK did promote a minor leaguer, 2B / SS Mike Rouse earlier in the season, but he isn't a 3B (he was picked up by CLE after designated for assignment later). OAK doesn't have another solid option at 3B behind Chávez in its minor system (in AAA, that is; there are good reasons why teams don't want to bring up AA players too fast). The lack of depth at 3B for OAK is a problem, and why they just stuck with Antonio all season.

OAK has had problems with inconsistent offense productions from its IFs. All of its IFs under-performed offensively: Chávez, Mark Ellis, Bobby Crosby, and Dan Johnson (in case you're wondering, that was their Opening Day IF lineup). Others have to give OAK lots of credits for managing the problem by juggling its lineup (like shifting Swisher to 1B & using Scutaro at SS). OAK is 5th in OBP and has the 3rd most walks behind heavy-offense teams, NYY & BOS! Antonio's .099AVG didn't really hurt them that much, after all.

AL MVP - Update: ESPN: Rob Neyer

Jeter the best choice for AL MVP, Neyer's mailbag article.


"Is Jeter clearly the MVP this season? He is not. Here are VORPs (value over replacement player) and win shares for my top five candidates, and two others often mentioned ...

         VORP  WS
Hafner 81.4 24
Ortiz 73.3 27
Jeter 73.0 31
Sizemore 71.2 24
Mauer 63.3 29
Morneau 52.1 27
Thomas 40.3 21

VORP incorporates defensive position, but not skill. Win shares consider defensive value. Jeter is not a good shortstop, but he does get credit for playing shortstop well enough to ... well, for playing well enough to play. If you know what I mean. Jeter currently ranks No. 1 in the American League in win shares and No. 3 in VORP, and nobody else can claim a combination as impressive. In my opinion, the only obvious alternative to Jeter is Joe Mauer, who takes a hit in both measures because, as a catcher, he plays only five or six times per week. If you want to argue that Jeter's not "valuable" because the Yankees have a big lead, Justin Morneau is your guy. As for Morneau ... yeah, he's a great hitter. But, umm, guys? He's 18th in the league in on-base percentage, sixth in the league in slugging average, seventh in OPS. He's a first baseman. A decent first baseman, but a first baseman nonetheless. Essentially, a vote for Morneau over Mauer is an argument that nothing matters except driving in runs for a postseason team. Granted, that's always been a popular argument. I don't find it particularly compelling."


VORP
#NAMETEAMPOSLGYEARPAPA%AVGOBPSLGSBCSMLVrPMLVrVORPrMLVPMLVVORP
1.Albert PujolsSLN1bNL200661210.1%.330.431.66462.5450.3990.57777.556.782.1
2.Travis HafnerCLEdhAL20065649.2%.308.439.65900.5230.4900.62567.963.681.1
3.Ryan HowardPHI1bNL200667810.8%.316.420.67000.4990.3530.52776.254.080.5
4.Derek JeterNYAssAL200669711.1%.341.414.483325.2610.3100.47941.048.775.4
5.Miguel CabreraFLO3bNL200665610.9%.335.427.56596.4300.3620.48766.656.075.4
6.David OrtizBOSdhAL200667410.7%.287.407.63710.3870.3510.48958.953.474.4
7.Grady SizemoreCLEcfAL200673211.9%.290.376.534224.2310.2600.41439.043.769.7
8.Lance BerkmanHOU1bNL200662110.2%.316.419.62232.4460.3230.48064.146.369.0
9.Miguel TejadaBALssAL200668911.4%.332.380.50562.2360.2810.41337.845.266.4
10.Carlos BeltranNYNcfNL20065959.8%.275.385.598173.3250.3240.47344.844.865.4
11.Jim ThomeCHAdhAL20065989.7%.290.418.60400.3680.3360.47050.746.464.8
12.Carlos GuillenDETssAL200659910.0%.317.399.524209.2790.3230.45739.545.864.7
13.Joe MauerMINcAL20065929.8%.349.432.50383.3240.3650.46744.850.564.6
14.Jermaine DyeCHArfAL20066079.8%.316.386.61973.3710.3220.46051.945.164.3
15.Vladimir GuerreroANArfAL200666411.0%.328.381.551155.3050.2600.40447.540.463.0
16.Chase UtleyPHI2bNL200671311.4%.310.379.528134.2410.2550.38938.740.962.4
17.Manny RamirezBOSlfAL20065548.8%.318.437.61201.4340.3630.49554.345.461.9
18.Vernon WellsTORcfAL200665910.9%.306.360.550164.2150.2410.38733.137.259.5
19.Jose ReyesNYNssNL200669111.4%.301.353.4916317.1560.1790.35725.128.857.2
20.Garrett AtkinsCOL3bNL200666810.9%.322.398.55130.2890.2210.35744.634.155.2
21.Matt HollidayCOLlfNL200664210.5%.330.389.58995.3360.2370.36849.935.254.6
22.Justin MorneauMIN1bAL200664110.6%.325.381.57033.3110.1930.36546.628.954.6
23.David WrightNYN3bNL200664510.6%.310.381.531205.2680.2000.35140.230.052.6
24.Nick JohnsonWAS1bNL200662810.3%.290.428.520103.3220.1760.35846.925.752.2
25.Brian MccannATLcNL20064757.8%.332.389.56920.3530.3750.47038.941.351.8


Win Shares
Year Last First Tm Lg Pos Batting Pitching Fielding ExpWS WSP WSAB Total WS desc arrow CWS
2006 Jeter D NYA AL SS 27.1 0.0 4.5 17 .903 19 31 276
2006 Mauer J MIN AL C 20.0 0.0 8.6 15 .945 18 29 58
2006 Ramirez M BOS AL OF 26.2 0.0 2.0 14 .990 18 28 338
2006 Ortiz D BOS AL DH 27.1 0.0 0.1 12 1.067 18 27 135
2006 Morneau J MIN AL 1B 24.8 0.0 1.8 16 .789 15 27 46
2006 Dye J CHA AL OF 23.2 0.0 2.6 15 .824 15 26 135
2006 Ibanez R SEA AL OF 21.6 0.0 3.1 17 .710 12 25 101
2006 Sizemore G CLE AL OF 20.3 0.0 3.5 18 .647 11 24 54
2006 Santana J MIN AL SP -0.1 24.0 0.0 12 .973 17 24 104
2006 Thome J CHA AL DH 23.9 0.0 0.0 11 1.049 16 24 306


Cowboy Up's Take:
Neyer is a stats guy and a stronger believer in SABR #'s like Win Share & VORP, which are great indication stats. Jeter has a case in regard of WS & VORP over Mauer & Morneau, as shown above. Does he deserve the AL MVP from these stats that he's put up all season? Yes, although, like Neyer noted, "he is not [clearly]the MVP this season". The award is awarded based on subjective slection, nonetheless. If MIN overtakes DET in the last 6gms of the season & wins AL Central, Mauer & Morneau should be much credited. Whether the AL Central Champion will help either of the Twins to win the MVP, it's a tough call. Morneau is Cowboy Up Baseball's MVP, simply because he lived the definition of "Cowboy Up" in critical times of his team & performed the way that exceeds expectaions.

On Tradesports.com, where people (traders) bid & sell future contracts on events, Jeter is heavily favored currently:

Contract BQty Bid


Offer
AQty Last Vol Chge
AL.MVP.JETER
100 57.0


63.5
50 64.0 3 0
AL.MVP.MORNEAU
10 10.0

31.0
50 20.0 6 -45.0
AL.MVP.ORTIZ
5 10.0

63.2
10 12.0 0 0

Cy Young Trophy - AL



The possible AL Cy Young award winner for '06 season is a relative easy pick.

Here are some of the worthwhile candidates:

NameTeam
G
GS
W
L
SV
CG
SHO
IP
H
R
ER
HR
BB
K
ERA
WHIP
BAA
Johan Santana MIN 34
34
19
6
0
1
0
233.2
186
79
72
24
47
245
2.77
1.00
.216
Roy Halladay TOR 32
32
16
5
0
4
0
220.0
208
82
78
19
34
132
3.19
1.10
.251
C.C. Sabathia CLE 28
28
12
11
0
6
2
192.2
182
83
69
17
44
172
3.22
1.17
.247
Mike Mussina NYY 31
31
14
7
0
1
0
191.1
182
87
76
21
35
168
3.57
1.13
.245
Chien-Ming Wang NYY 33
32
18
6
1
2
1
212.0
223
88
84
12
51
72
3.57
1.29
.274
Justin Verlander DET 30
30
17
9
0
1
1
186.0
187
78
75
21
60
124
3.63
1.33
.266
Kenny Rogers DET 32
32
17
6
0
0
0
198.1
184
88
80
23
58
97
3.63
1.22
.248
Jon Garland CWS 32
31
17
7
0
1
1
203.0
241
109
104
25
41
108
4.61
1.39
.298



MIN: A average-built guy named, Johan Santana has been dominating AL hitters ever since he turned into a full-time starter in '03. He definitely has put up another great season by any standards. If he keeps pitching like this, this sensational27-yr young, left-hander is making a reservation at Cooperstown. Just 4,5 more seasons like what we've seen from Johan in the last 3 years ('04~'06), he should be tagged as the best pitching in the 21st century (at least from '01 onwards).

Year Team G GS W L SV CG SHO IP H R ER HR BB K ERA WHIP BAA
2000 MIN 30 5 2 3 0 0 0 86.0 102 64 62 11 54 64 6.49 1.81 .302
2001 MIN 15 4 1 0 0 0 0 43.2 50 25 23 6 16 28 4.74 1.51 .292
2002 MIN 27 14 8 6 1 0 0 108.1 84 41 36 7 49 137 2.99 1.23 .212
2003 MIN 45 18 12 3 0 0 0 158.1 127 56 54 17 47 169 3.07 1.10 .216
2004 MIN 34 34 20 6 0 1 1 228.0 156 70 66 24 54 265 2.61 0.92 .192
2005 MIN 33 33 16 7 0 3 2 231.2 180 77 74 22 45 238 2.87 0.97 .210
2006 MIN 34 34 19 6 0 1 0 233.2 186 79 72 24 47 245 2.77 1.00 .216
Career
218 142 78 31 1 5 3 1089.2 885 412 387 111 312 1146 3.20 1.10 .220

In '06, Santana was in his near-perfect form, pitching over 233 inn & has a impressive 2.77ERA & 1.10WHIP. Oppoing batters only manage to hit .220 against the Twin. To understand how dominating he is, just know that he stroke out 245 hitters and he doesn't give up any walks (47BBs over 34GS). Numbers like these make him a solid case to win the Cy Young. It's doubtful that there would be any critics out there with these stats Johan has pitched all season long.


TOR: 'o3 Cy Young winner, Roy Halladay has had a big comeback '06 season from '05 when his season was cut short because of a unfortunate injury from a comebacker that broke his leg. More unfortunately, his '06 season was ended earlier this month when his strained forearm gave up. Regardless of the couple of injuries in '06, Doc Halladay still managed to start 32gms & put out lines of 3.19ERA, 1.10WHIP, .251 opp. AVG over 220inn. His strikeout is way down this season, probably due to a change in his pitching style from a over-powering big righthander to a more control-focused plan (only 132Ks). Pitching for a team with high-expectation coming into the season, Roy won 16gms (50% of GS) for the Blue Jays.


NYY: Wang, ironically the best starter for the ~$200mil payroll NYY team in '06 has pitched at Cy Young candidate-level all season. He may have win 19gms for the AL East Champ with gravity-proven sinkers that hitters just can't figured out all season. Over 212inn pitched, hitters hit .274 against him, Chien-Ming has been effectively to get out of trouble at times with groudouts. His stats of 469 balls hit to the grounds & 3.05 ratio of groundball-flyball (both AL-leading) is what distinguishes him apart from other effective pitchers. Not a strikeout guy (72Ks only), but his sinking pitches that Issac Newton would much appreciate with his mid-90's fastballs are devastating to major-league hitters. Wang's 3.57ERA & 1.29WHIP are not eye-popping in the arena of Cy Young-worthy pitchers. His contribution to NYY in 33GS (tonight vs. BAL, hunting for 19th W) can't be ignored, nor discounted.

RKPLAYERTEAMK/BBK/9#PITP/PAP/IPWPCTAGSGBFBG/FRSWHIP
1Chien-Ming WangNYY1.41 3.06 2971 3.41 14.0 .750 50.8 469 154 3.05 5.86 1.29
2Jake WestbrookCle1.91 4.54 3172 3.61 15.5 .583 47.7 437 146 2.99 6.74 1.45
3Roy HalladayTor3.88 5.40 3050 3.48 13.9 .762 56.4 399 167 2.39 6.01 1.10
4Felix HernandezSea2.85 8.36 2983 3.76 16.2 .440 50.0 318 134 2.37 4.50 1.36
5Erik BedardBal2.58 7.90 3199 3.91 16.7 .600 53.0 281 165 1.70 6.26 1.33




COWBOY UP's PICK: JOHAN SANTANA, MIN

In '05, voters selected Bartolon Colon over Santana for the award. Partly due to MIN not making the playoff and LAA, which Colon played for did. Santana could have, and maybe should have won the Cy Young in '05. It was close, but Colon had a good case of winning 21gms & helping his team to win AL West (Santana had 2.87ERA & .97WHIP in '05; Colon: .348ERA & 1.16WHIP; Johan had more dominating #'s, certainly). MIN will make the playoff this year (Colon is out for the season back in July this season), so more cred to Johan's backing.

2005 American League Cy Young Award
 Rk Name             Team Place Points Points Share|  W-L   IP  ERA   WHIP  SO SV
+--+----------------+----+-----+------+------+-----+------+---+-----+-----+---+--+
1 Bartolo Colon LAA 17 118 140 0.84 | 21-8 223 3.48 1.16 157
2 Mariano Rivera NYY 8 68 140 0.49 | 7-4 78 1.38 0.87 80 43
3 Johan Santana MIN 3 51 140 0.36 | 16-7 232 2.87 0.97 238
4 Cliff Lee CLE 0 8 140 0.06 | 18-5 202 3.79 1.22 143
5 Mark Buehrle CHW 0 5 140 0.04 | 16-8 237 3.12 1.18 149
6 Jon Garland CHW 0 1 140 0.01 | 18-10 221 3.50 1.17 115
6 Kevin Millwood CLE 0 1 140 0.01 | 9-11 192 2.86 1.22 146

With a name like Johan, he is a stand-out in the league (outstanding, to look at it another way) with his almost-magical pitching. How many hitters have talked about his deceptional change-up's & sliders, along with moving 94-mph fastballs. From what we have seen so far from Santana, it is just not fair to hitters. His AL-leading 9.44 K/9inn ratio is more than slightly higher than the next stud pitcher (Bonderman, DET, 8.59). His domination over hitters seperates him from other good pitchers. Cy Young means domination & memorable performance. The '04 Cy Young winner, Santana has showcased his pitching talent once again in '06. Surely, he's got lots left in the tank for many seasons to come.

MLB Collective Bargaining 2006

The current four-year MLB collective bargaining agreement with Major League Baseball Players Association: News (MLBPA) will expire on Dec. 19. MLB & MLBPA will have to come into agreement for a new labor deal this off-season. One important potential change in the new deal is the draft pick compensation for free-agent signings. Currently, teams are compensated with draft picks in the following season if players on its roster sign with another team as unrestricted free agents. The draft pick orders are determined based on STATS Inc. player rating system. The "Sandwich Picks" (picks between the 1st & 2nd round) are Type A compensation picks for Top-tier free agents. There are Type B (in the 2nd round) & C (between 2nd & 3rd round) & other draft compensations, as well. An example would be this year's draft, where teams that signed free agents from another team have to "compensate" the free agents' previous teams with their draft picks. The change in the new collective bargaining agreement could eliminate that "compensation" of draft picks in regard to free agent signings.

This potential change in the upcoming deal could affect teams that have been taking advantages of the compensation draft picks, like OAK, KC, LAA, & TOR. The teams that thrive on managing their roster budgets and minor systems from draft picks would be hurt the most with the potential change. From an organizational operating point of view, it is certainly unfair & discouraging. The obvious reason being that if a player who is originally drafted by Team X has reached free agent status and decides to sign with another team, Team X loses the player and receives nothing in return. The scenario would possibly cause teams to manage their potential free agents differently. Most importantly, in a professional sport league, where no salary caps are in place, teams with limited budgets would be at serious disadvantage. An organization that makes smart draft picks would end up losing their good players as free agents and not be compensated for their leaves after their minor league contracts expire. Teams with high budgets would be able to sign all the free agents without paying or compensating the teams that lose them with any means, besides money to the players themselves. This could cause serious uncompetitiveness in MLB and imparity among teams with different budgets.

It is clear and obvious that the MLB salary and luxury tax system is critically flawed. Teams that earn more through media contracts & sponsorships have much higher budgets than those that operate either in smaller markets or with small fan-base. The current luxury tax that are enforced on teams that exceeds the limit does not require teams that receive them to spend it on player salary or facility enhancement. The extra payments received from the present luxury tax rule could be(and probably are) extra revenues for lower budgeted teams. The elimination of the compensation draft pick would further worsen the unbalanced player salary issue and ultimate team competitiveness.

and all of its teams & players. Teams with low budgets, like OAK & MIN, have found their way to be competitive in the last few years with the Rule 4 draft (Regular June Draft of first-year players) & other creative plans. These teams have managed to make the playoff without gigantic player salary budgets and have positive earnings. Taking away one tool those lower-budgeted teams have in free agent compensation draft picks would disrupt the overall balance among teams in regard to performance on the field and revenues off the field, eventually. It's unclear thus far of how the collective bargaining deal would be negotiated with new changes to current system. The importance of the resulting agreement is that it would improve MLB and its teams and players. MLB would find itself in a tougher situations with teams that have even larger imbalance between themselves. Teams may have to be contracted (a much nicer word than eliminated, which might be a better term in reality), especially those that operate in small markets and have little revenues to begin with. MLB should learn its lesson in the last decade from the strike to the almost contraction of teams. Fans have slowly get their interest back into the game. MLB should not disinterest or discourage them away, again. Let's keep the fans IN the game of baseball, not kick them out.

Just a thought, MLB... It's your turn.


Major League Baseball : Collective Bargaining 2006 page

ESPN.com - MLB

Major League Baseball News

NYT - Baseball

Yahoo! Sports - MLB News

ESPN: Peter Gammons

SI.com: Tom Verducci

ESPN: Buster Olney

ESPN: Tim Kurkjian

ESPN: Jayson Stark

ESPN: Keith Law