Cowboy Up Baseball

Jack Hana-what?

2008-03-25T13:03:00.002-04:00

A's Jack Hannahan is a sleeper INF who can hit, who was traded for another nobody (okay, a 27-year prospect who isn't on the DET roster). Hannahan looks like he can get on base and he isn't a bad fielder (saw that play when he dove across the 3rd base foulline and threw across the diamond in the first game?)|.

A's made a subtle but smart trade with this guy. Whenever you can trade a minor leaguer for someone who is worthy to be playing everyday, that's money. When he was called up last season, he put up decent number you can expect from a 26-th man. If Crosby keep hitting .226, Hannahan may be tried at SS when Chavez comes back (someday, someday). A's will be smart to find a position for Hannahan. At this point, he is a worthy utility INF on the roster.

Season Opening Game Scouting Notes

2008-03-25T04:55:00.003-04:00

Red Sox and A’s hitters were least likely to chase pitches out of the strike zone last season. A’s batters chased only 19 percent of pitches and Sox batters chased 19.4 percent. The major league average was 23 percent.

Moneyball?! OBP?!
Sox & A's batters know their balls & strikes...

Jeremy Brown's Quiet Exit

2008-02-15T23:49:00.003-05:00

Jeremy Brown, Athletics's 1st round pick in '01 and the famed large-frame catcher in Moneyball has announced his retirement. Although, his retirement reason isn't clear (Brown stated "personal reasons" as the cause), one has to wonder what happened to this Moneyball stud.

Just two seasons ago, Kurt Suzuki, who will likely to be Oakland's opening day catcher was listed #2 catcher prospect behind Brown. Something must have changed Athletics's liking and plan with their two catcher prospects. Brown has always shown his ability to get on base, although, his power isn't great. His defense has been vieweed somewhat below-average. His good OBP should have earned him a spot on the roster, if not in Oakland's daily lineup. After Athletics traded Jason Kendall in '07, Suzuki gradually took over the starting catcher job (he was already on the active 25-man roster), while Brown stayed in AAA. It seemed like Oakland had decided to go with Suzuki long before theyactually traded away Kendall (who was going to be a free agent at end of '07). Suzuki has always been a decent defensive catcher in the minors and is regarded as more all-around player (can hit for average and has some pop).

It's just sad to see the 2nd Moneyball draftee retired before playing in the Majors full-time (Steve Stanley retired in early '06). It made GM Billy Beane look really bad. These supposedly "undervalued" players appear to struggle being only slightly above-average ballplayers in the minors and have trouble making it to the bigs. Three out of the seven 1st rounders of Oakland have made it (Swisher, Blanton, & Teahen). They have not made the kind of impact on the team like other picks, Tim Hudson, Mark Mulder, Barry Zito, and Eric Chavez have.

Oakland is in full-rebuilding mode. Their best prospects are the ones (Carlos Gonzalez & Gio Gonzalez) they just traded Dan Harren (who was traded to A's for Mulder) & Swisher for. It's just tougher competition now as a small-budget team with smarter GMs in the league and bigger spending budgets by wealthy teams.

Oakland's draft strategy review by Bucs Dugout

2008-02-07T18:04:00.000-05:00

GM Beane's draft strategy review, years after Moneyball. A very thorough and insightful piece.

"Competitive balance highlights MLB's first half" from Yahoo!

2007-07-10T23:21:00.000-04:00

Competitive balance highlights MLB's first half

Where you at, Yankees?

It's Braun Time - Ryan Braun

2007-07-05T01:37:00.000-04:00

This '05 1st round pick from The U has been a stud ever since playing 3B full time in Brewers town. He's hitting almost .400OBP & .350AVG &.600SLG with 8HR's, and this kid can run, too, 8SB's in 36gms. Alex Gordon & Ryan Zimmerman (both 3B, coincidentally) were drafted before this 5th overall stud in '05. So much have been expected about Gordon's full-time playing time & Zimmerman has proven his franchise value in his rookie year last season. Where were the buzz about Braun? Maybe again, it's gotta do with small-town media coverage. Money is on this The U product to be a favorite to win ROY. Not sure about his fielding yet (7 errors in 36gms already), but he's got a good bat and anchor that 3rd spot ahead of Prince Fielder for the Brew Crew. Braun & Fielder are forming a solid 1-2 punch in the NL quietly. It's neat to see so many young stud 3B's rising up in the last couple of seasons.

You don't know Jack - Jack Cust

2007-07-03T02:34:00.001-04:00

A 28-year old career minor leaguer, former 1st round pick, Jack Cust who was traded for the bare minimum (player to be named later, PTBNL or cash considerations) to the A's from the Padres now leads his new team with 14 HR's & hits .281 with .400+OBP & .611SLG. How the hack did anyone miss this guy? Other 29 teams didn't pick up on this guy, in fact, Jack Cust played for 4 teams (ARI, COL, BAL & SD) before ending up as an everyday hitter in Oakland this season. Shouldn't the scouts from other 29 teams be embrassed (especially the staff of the four teams Cust played for previsouly)?!

Cust is no 5-tool guy. A high schooler drafted out in the 1st round, he must be thought of being a solid everyday player. Average height but with a nice build at 230lbs, this guy (he's no longer a kid at 27) can hit. Who cares if he can't throw out the guy at home from the warning track or climb the wall to rob homers. So what he runs like almost a catcher. He's a professional hitter! It may sound like a hindsight 20/20, but Cust was solid hitting prospect in the minors to say the least (he hit over .400OBP & almost .550SLG in 'o6 at AAA and a decent '05 for A's AAA team). San Diego, please tell me that you don't want to play this guy everyday this season over Terrmel Sledge & José Cruz. It's different on a NL team, understandably, because the lack of DH and the need for utility defense skill. Still, Sledge & Cruz can't hit for jack. However, how could other 13 AL teams don't even want to give up almost nothing (maybe a bucket of balls and a couple of bats) for Cust??

Cust may not be an All-Star just yet, nonetheless Oakland picked up on this guy & paying him only minor league money, this is the dictionary definition of Moneyball. It really makes you wonder what these Major League teams pay their scouts for. Every ordinary fan can point out past All-Stars and recent top draft picks as their next solid picks for this year's studs. If a Major League team can't pick up a guy who's put up convincing numbers at a the high minor league level and opt for some other scrubs, that's a major offense of running its team to the ground.

Good for Jack. He's hitting 4th in the lineup, playing everyday in the Bigs. If you haven't heard of Cust, you really don't know jack. He will be an All-Star someday.

Miller Time - Andrew Miller, DET

2007-06-30T19:38:00.000-04:00

22-year young pitching stud, Andrew Miller of the Tigers made his Major League debut last year immediately after being drafted 6th overall out of UNC (he pitched 3 short games on DET's high-A team after being drafted). Many discussion about his quick call-up to the Majors were made last year. DET had a very good rotation and sensational bullpen last year. They wanted to see what Miller was made of after being a stud at UNC. This year, due to Kenny Rogers' injury, Miller is in the strong Tigers rotation.

After seeing him pitching today at the almost mid-season point, some good and bad things can be said of this Tar Heel alum:

-Very good, live fastballs, can hit 97mph & consistent ~92-94mph
-3 types of fastballs: 4-seam, 2-seam & cutter
-Average slider, which he throws when ahead, it's decent enough to throw hitters off & made them miss
-Below-average curveball, which he throws sometimes to mix in with his 90+ fastballs
-Needs a change-up and a steady slower pitch (e.g. splitter or change-up), to get the most out of his heat
-Smooth, quick 3-quarter, left-handed delivery comes right at the hitters from his lean 6'6 frame that is deceptive
-Needs to control his pitches better and lower his BB's

Miller can definitely become an ace of any rotation with a better off-speed pitch and more Major League experience. The question really is should be be developed at the Majors level or in the minor league. He looks confident at this point and as long as he doesn't blow up at some point while pitching in the Majors, any strong competitive experience can only help his career.

Year	Team	Lg	Age	Org	Level	W	L	ERA	G	GS	CG	SH	GF	SV	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	SO	WP	BK	H9	HR9	BB9	K9	WHIP

2004	North Car.	NCAA	19		NCAA	6	3	2.93	18	15	1	0		0	89.0	64	40	29	5	48	88	8		6.47	0.51	4.85	8.90	1.26
2005	North Car.	NCAA	20		NCAA	8	4	2.98	16	16	2	0		0	96.2	78	45	32	4	52	104	8	0	7.26	0.37	4.84	9.68	1.34
2006	North Car.	NCAA	21		NCAA	13	2	2.48	20	18	0	0		1	123.1	100	50	34	4	40	133	9	0	7.30	0.29	2.92	9.71	1.14
	Lakeland	FSL	21	Det	A+	0	0	0.00	3	0				0	5.0	2	0	0	0	1	9	1	0	3.60	0.00	1.80	16.20	0.60
	Detroit	MLB	21	Det	MLB	0	1	6.10	8	0	0	0	3	0	10.1	8	9	7	0	10	6	1	0	6.97	0.00	8.71	5.23	1.74

Yankees got two more ching chong's

2007-06-18T18:50:00.000-04:00

Yankees sign two Chinese prospects
Yankees sign Chinese pair

"We have scouts worldwide and we have seen both players in the past," Yankees general manager Brian Cashman said.

Only the Evil Empire with a douchebag GM would say something like that. Duh, other teams have scouts worldwide, too. Other teams may just not have all the money in the world to sign a couple of unproven teenagers from China. This is almost as bad as the Jose "Family Guy" Contreras bidding & singing a few years back. Let's hope that these two fresh-off-the-boaters are the next Chan Ho Park & Kaz Matsui.

Clemens may be the biggest douche of all time

2007-05-06T16:00:00.000-04:00

... it's a toss-up between Rocket & Bonds for the biggest douchebag award in baseball history...

Clemens has decided to pitch for the Bronx Buttholes this season along with his buddy (it's probably more than just sharing family vacations together), Pettitte.

Remember couples years ago when Roger was supposed "retired", only to come out of retirement to pitch with his homie, Andy in Houston? All the talk about being close to his family and his son (who is in Houston's minor league organization) is just the same ol' bologna he tells everyone.

Roger's got some impressive career achievements of going to Toronto for money, going to Chokees for championships, then going to hang out with his loverboy in Houston. This guy always got some bull for you. More reasons for any douche to cheer for the Yanks.

Happy Belated April Fool's, A-Fraud

2007-05-02T01:12:00.000-04:00

Mr. Slappy, aka Purple Lips had one of the best April in baseball history. Not many arguments could really be made against his case. Just a quick look of his April production strongly indicates this season is a big one for him. Not only he might get booed out of New York if he doesn't put up Babe Ruth/Hank Greenberg numbers, it's his CONTRACT YEAR!!!

Regular Season														Season to Date
Date	Opponent	Score	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	K	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Apr 29	BOS	L 4-7	4	0	2	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	.355	.415	.882	1.297
Apr 28	BOS	W 3-1	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	.348	.412	.899	1.311
Apr 27	BOS	L 4-11	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	.365	.429	.941	1.370
Apr 26	TOR	L 0-6	4	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	.378	.436	.976	1.412
Apr 24	@ TAM	L 4-6	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	.385	.444	1.013	1.457
Apr 23	@ TAM	L 8-10	5	4	4	0	0	2	3	0	1	0	0	.400	.453	1.053	1.507
Apr 22	@ BOS	L 6-7	4	2	1	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	.371	.432	.986	1.418
Apr 21	@ BOS	L 5-7	4	0	2	1	0	0	1	0	1	0	0	.379	.434	1.030	1.465
Apr 20	@ BOS	L 6-7	5	3	3	1	0	2	4	0	0	0	0	.371	.431	1.048	1.479
Apr 19	CLE	W 8-6	5	1	1	0	0	1	3	0	2	0	0	.351	.418	.965	1.383
Apr 18	CLE	W 9-2	4	2	1	0	0	1	2	0	2	0	0	.365	.435	.981	1.416
Apr 17	CLE	W 10-3	5	1	2	0	0	1	3	0	1	0	0	.375	.448	.979	1.427
Apr 15	@ OAK	L 4-5	3	1	2	1	0	0	1	0	1	0	0	.372	.453	.977	1.430
Apr 14	@ OAK	W 4-3	5	1	1	0	0	1	1	1	3	0	0	.350	.449	.975	1.424
Apr 13	@ OAK	L 4-5	4	1	2	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	.371	.465	1.000	1.465
Apr 11	@ MIN	L 1-5	3	0	1	1	0	0	1	0	2	0	0	.355	.447	1.065	1.512
Apr 10	@ MIN	W 10-1	3	1	1	0	0	1	2	2	1	0	0	.357	.471	1.107	1.578
Apr 9	@ MIN	W 8-2	4	1	1	0	0	1	2	1	0	0	0	.360	.448	1.080	1.528
Apr 8	BAL	L 4-6	3	1	1	0	0	1	2	1	0	0	0	.381	.458	1.095	1.554
Apr 7	BAL	W 10-7	4	4	3	1	0	2	6	1	0	0	0	.389	.450	1.056	1.506
Apr 6	BAL	L 4-6	4	1	1	1	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	.286	.333	.643	.976
Apr 5	TAM	L 6-7	5	0	1	1	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	.300	.300	.700	1.000
Apr 2	TAM	W 9-5	5	2	2	0	0	1	2	0	1	1	0	.400	.400	1.000	1.400
Total			93	27	33	7	0	14	34	9	23	2	0	.355	.415	.882	1.297

Merely mentioning A-Fraud's HR numbers is not a complete picture of his "achievement" (can such word be properly used for him?). His .882 SLG & 1.297OPS are just outright HOF-class. He also hit .355 (33 hits in 23gms) to begin this '07 season.

Let's just say Scott Boras is printing that leather-bound A-Fraud almanac to get his next team to pony up a 7-year, $280 mil. contract. (Mr. Fraud can opt out of his 10-year $252 mil. contract at the end of this season at his wish. Predicting from Boras' clients' past opt-out contract option history, A-Fraud will OPT-PUT certainly.)

Putting the contract issue aside, the April production A-Fraud had was simply sensational. Too bad he can't take 5 out of 6 gms against Red Sox with his individual numbers. Oh, right, baseball is a team sport. Take that $25 million salary and get some new shade of lipstick, A-Fraud. It won't matter that you hit 25 HRs and drive in 75 runs in a single month, if your team can't win with you on the team, you will go down in history as the greediest and most selfish player, ever.

FOX just can't get it right

2007-04-28T15:55:00.000-04:00

Joe Buck just called Dustin Pedroia, "Justin" after he announced his team's lineup!?!?

GET IT RIGHT, FOX douchebag announcers! (McCarver can never get it right. Remember the "Brandon Arroyo" name-calling back in '04?)

www.shutuptimmccarver.com

Francoeur got his 1st BB of the season tonight!

2007-04-11T23:14:00.000-04:00

He didn't draw a walk until 5/9 of last season...

He's a true free-swinging stud hitter, who just doesn't wait for pitches. He could be like Nomar or José Hernández.

P.S. Jeff's got a new sponsorship deal from UA this season (switching from Mizuno). He makes those gears look good.

'07 Preliminary Payroll Bumbers

2007-04-05T16:30:00.000-04:00

Yahoo! article, "It pays to wear pinstripes"
USA Today article, "More baseball clubs joining spending spree"

NYY tops the list (what a surprise) with ~$195 mil. BOS is turning itself into a free-spending machine (without much expectation management) with a ~$143 mil. budget.

With inflation (more like costlier free agency, really) accounted in, more teams have payroll over $100 mil. in '07. Teams are finding more budgets out of their grand daddy's trust funds to spend.

There is parity in MLB. Teams like Cubs & Astros unexpectedly spent some big-time dough on free agents to improve their lineups this off-season show the new payroll trend. Teams are willing to spend (more) and compete (or at least appearing so), rather than just packing it in by the time spring training wraps up(okay, TB & WAS still stink). Hey, there are no clear most-talented teams to win it all on opening day. It's great to see more balance in team strengths in both NL & AL.

Free Agent Contracts

2007-01-08T02:56:00.000-05:00

Free Agents Contracts
Reference: Boston.com
(great details on how many dudes got rich this winter)

Another questionable move by Red Sox

2007-01-05T00:24:00.000-05:00

2B Mark Loretta has signed with Astros for one-year, $2.5 mil. Red Sox let go of a good fielder & a career .299 hitter in Loretta. It's a significant risk to bank on rookie, Dustin Pedroia to be an everyday 2B and not an automatic out at the bottom of the lineup. For the price of >$4mil., Red Sox should have kept Loretta, who is a likable guy in the club house, too, and hope to grow Pedroia into a full-time 2B over a full season at the big-league level. Another thing about "team chemistry", wasn't there a rumor about bringing back Kevin "Karaoke Guy" Millar and build the World Championship-grade club house atmosphere again? They should have got Millar for a cheap pocket change of $2.75mil. as a DH/1B/cheerleader. Red Sox is using the "Evil Empire" model of club house style now with all the free agents and hot shots. Boston need the blue collar dirtdogs, like Trot & Millar!!

As a Boston Dirtdog, I'll miss Trot (da original dirtdog, drafted & been with BOS longest up to '06) & Mr. CowboyUp, Millar.

Why do the Yankees need Mientkiewicz?!

2007-01-04T19:44:00.000-05:00

Doug, aka "the ball-stealer" or "WHIPPED", is a gold-glove 1B who doesn't have much pop and average OBP at this point of his career. NYY already has a decent 1B fielder in Andy Phillips and Mr. All-Bat, No-Glove, Jason "Juice" Giambi-(no). New York must doesn't like or expect much from Phillips to sign a defensive 1B who can't even provide much offense in Mientkiewicz. Other teams should inquire about Phillips, whose OBP is an attractive tool (proven at the AAA-level, at least), although, all these years he wasted in the Yankees organization makes him no longer a young man at 29. All the Mientkiewicz signing was just a waste of $1.5 mil. Yankees could have used that money to upgrade their men's rooms (trust me, they need that "clean-up")...

Year	Team	Lg	Age	Org.	Level		Pos	G	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	SB	CS	BB	SO	HBP	IBB	SH	SF	DP	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS

1999	Staten Isl	NYPL	22	Nyy	A-		3b	64	233	35	75	11	7	7	48	3	3	37	40	3	1	0	3	4	.322	.417	.519	936
2000	Tampa	FSL	23	Nyy	A+		3b	127	478	66	137	33	2	13	58	2	0	46	98	2	0	0	8	9	.287	.346	.446	792
	Norwich	East	23	Nyy	AA		3b	7	28	5	7	2	1	0	3	1	0	3	11	0	0	1	0	1	.250	.323	.393	716
2001	Tampa	FSL	24	Nyy	A+		2b	75	288	43	87	17	4	11	50	3	3	25	55	3	1	1	10	6	.302	.353	.503	856
	Norwich	East	24	Nyy	AA		2b	51	183	23	49	9	2	6	25	1	0	21	54	0	2	0	2	6	.268	.340	.437	777
2002	Norwich	East	25	Nyy	AA		2b	73	272	58	83	24	2	19	51	4	3	33	56	3	2	0	4	6	.305	.381	.618	999
	Columbus	IL	25	Nyy	AAA		2b	51	205	32	54	11	1	9	36	0	1	10	46	0	0	1	1	8	.263	.296	.459	755
2003	Columbus	IL	26	Nyy	AAA		2b	17	67	7	14	4	0	2	5	0	0	5	17	0	0	0	0	4	.209	.264	.358	622
2004	Trenton	East	27	Nyy	AA		3b-1b	10	42	8	15	2	1	4	16	3	0	3	1	0	0	0	2	0	.357	.383	.738	1121
	Columbus	IL	27	Nyy	AAA		1b-dh	115	434	83	138	19	6	26	85	2	1	51	60	2	5	1	5	18	.318	.388	.569	957
	NY Yankees	MLB	27	Nyy	MLB	log - sp	3b	5	8	1	2	0	0	1	2	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	1	.250	.250	.625	875
2005	Columbus	IL	28	Nyy	AAA		3b-1b	75	300	60	90	14	1	22	54	2	0	36	61	3	3	0	1	15	.300	.379	.573	952
	NY Yankees	MLB	28	Nyy	MLB	log - sp	1b	27	40	7	6	4	0	1	4	0	0	1	13	0	0	0	0	1	.150	.171	.325	496
2006	NY Yankees	MLB	29	Nyy	MLB		1b	110	246	30	59	11	3	7	29	3	2	15	56	0	0	0	2	9	.240	.281	.394	675

Major League Totals - 3 Season(s)								142	294	38	67	15	3	9	35	3	2	16	70	0	0	0	2	11	.228	.266	.391	657
Minor League Totals - 7 Season(s)								665	2530	420	749	146	27	119	431	21	11	270	499	16	14	4	36	77	.296	.363	.516	879

Red Sox STILL needs a closer

2007-01-03T20:44:00.000-05:00

Joel Pineiro?!

He is NOT the answer for a team that is serious about making the playoff. C'mn, BoSox!!

Red Sox should have taken a chance on Gagne for cheap (considering their payroll & how much they spent on Matsuzaka & other questionable FAs).

Boston needs to look into some bottom-level arms like
Felix Rodriguez,
Chris Reitsma,
Cliff Politte,
Matt Mantei (whom BOS may not be interested realistically),
Dustin Hermanson &
Matt Herges

And DON'T even think about the remote possibility of young Craig Hansen and Manny Delcarman turning into K-Rod this season; they have much work to do in the minors before becoming solid relievers.

Off-season Thoughts on Blue Jays

2007-01-03T20:33:00.000-05:00

Yahoo!'s Tim Brown sums up off-season moves by teams:

Quick look of Blue Jays' off-season move thus far:

Big Additions:
Frank Thomas, DH
Greg Zaun, C
(Vernon Wells, OF --resigned BIG TIME for BIG MONEY)

Big Losses:
Ted Lilly, SP
Justin Speier, RP

Like Brown mentioned, TOR didn't do anything to improve its rotation and lost much strength overall with Lilly & Speier's departure. Signing Wells to a long-term extension was rather their 3rd option on their priority list. Losing bid of Meche & Zito (whom TOR wasn't very interested in, but they should have been) hurt a lot. There are some 2nd-rate scrubs in the free agents pool for Blue Jays to improve their rotation & bullpen. However, most big-name pitchers are signed. Blue Jays may be looking at another ~85 wins season in '07 missing the playoff, unless Halladay & Burnett are healthy all-season and perform at All-Star level.

CowboyUp's original plan for Blue Jays in the off-season.

Rogers' Sticky Palm

2006-10-23T15:56:00.000-04:00

You judge for yourself. Did he cheat?

Did Kenny Rogers cheat with his "dirt"-covered pitching hand??

From the pictures above & live broadcast, the dirt looked most like a sticky, oily substance that was glued to the bottom of Rogers' left-palm, his pitching hand. His own explanation of the dirt-look-like thing-ie was the product of rosin, dirt, and sweat. That brownie on his palm looked more like pine-tar and rosin than simply just plain dirt. Given that the weather was cold (~30F) during the game and some pitchers are known to put some pine-tar on their hand (particularly just the fingers) to get a better grip of the baseball, they wouldn't have such fair-size, obvious dark color on their pitching hand. The area where Rogers had the dirt is an interesting spot, because it's not on his fingers but the bottom palm area below his thumb. It's easy to imagine that a ball with some rosin, pine-tar, and some dirt could make some unusual, silly moves as a slider or a curve. If Rogers did play around with some funny substance with the ball, any physicist would be proud of his pitches and the hitters' incapability to make contact with them.

By the way, MLB balls are "rubbed in" with dirt from Mississippi, but are no where near dirt-color-like. Balls are no longer pearls after they have been rubbed in with dirt and water, however, are relatively white after all. In any MLB game, balls are changed when they hit the dirt when they bounced to the catcher or after being fouled off. Rogers' sticky hand presents a questionable situation in which that he should be suspected of doctoring the ball with whatever he's got on his hand. Obviously, having any "foreign substance" (that is excluding just dirt, of course) on the pitcher is an offense to the rules of the game. The question simply comes down to WHAT is on Rogers' hand. It's not just dirt, seemingly.

Some of the most-read sports writers offered their views & Rogers and MLB's response to the dirty question:

Yahoo! Sports:
Dan Wetzel, Caught looking
Jeff Passan, A sticky question

ESPN.com:
Jayson Stark, Rogers' dirty hand overshadows his Game 2 brilliance
Gene Wojciechowski, Rogers was masterful, but did he cheat?
Buster Olney, Top 10 Rogers explanations

Yahoo! Video
Rogers: 'Just dirt'
Ump's view

Clearly, he didn't have dirt when he pitched in prior playoff games this year:

Rogers in ALCS:

In ALDS:

Tim McCarver Wrong, Again

2006-10-21T21:30:00.000-04:00

In World Series Game 1 broadcast, FOX commentator, Tim McCarver (a.k.a. Captain Bandwagon) suggested that "revenue sharing" is working in reference to Detroit Tigers' success this season and being in the World Series. McCarver is known as a blind squirrel that wouldn't hit water if he fell out of a boat in the baseball commendatory world. He never knows what he is talking about and talks without any facts or backing.

If the 14th highest payroll team, the Tigers, has done well this season because of revenue sharing, shouldn't similar middle-size market teams like HOU, SEA, and PHI be having as much success as Detroit? It's fair to note that teams without a decent salary spending of ~$80 are in a tougher situation to be competitive (i.e. a contender that can make the playoff). At ~$83 million, Detroit is right in the middle in terms of teams that wish to spend on free agents and trade for players to be in contention. Revenue sharing is NOT the reason why Tigers have been a winning team and is in the World Seres. It's their smart player management that leads them to the fall classic.

P.S. Some would remember McCarver kept calling Bronson Arroyo, "Brandon" throughout '04 postseason. This guy has the Jose Conseco-level analytical and reading skills.

www.shutuptimmccarver.com

Chip Cannon

2006-10-21T18:24:00.000-04:00

With a name like that (Chip as a good-hitter in Chipper Jones & Cannon as a rocket-throwing arm), this guy is my favorite Blue Jays prospects simply because of his catchy baseball call-sign. A 8th round pick in '04, Chip has got some positive attention from scouts, not just from his made-for-the game name. This guy could be get called up later in '07 as a DH/1B if he continues his hot hitting. This kid has one of the best names ever in baseball (even better than Hack Wilson).

In recent Toronto's official Arizona Fall League update, he is noted as one of TOR's most promising power hitters:

Since Toronto drafted him in 2004, Chip Cannon has quickly proven he is among the organization's most promising power hitters. After slugging 42 home runs in his first two professional seasons, the 24-year-old first baseman didn't slow down in 2006, leading the Eastern League with 27 roundtrippers.
Now he's out to conquer another level, the Arizona Fall League. Judging by his performance on Oct. 16, he's well on his way. The graduate of The Citadel went 3-for-3 with two home runs and three RBIs to lead Phoenix to a 14-6 victory over the Peoria Seguaros. Cannon went 5-for-17 with four RBIs in five games this week.

Batting Statistics

Year	Team	Lg	Age	Org.	Level	Pos	G	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	SB	CS	BB	SO	HBP	IBB	SH	SF	DP	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS

2001	Citadel	NCAA	19		NCAA		22	33	4	11	0	0	2	4	0	0	3	7	2		0	0	2	.333	.421	.515	936
2002	Citadel	NCAA	20		NCAA		57	214	37	60	9	1	9	39	1	1	40	46	1		0	1	4	.280	.395	.458	853
2003	Citadel	NCAA	21		NCAA		57	205	50	69	15	3	12	60	0	0	42	44	7		0	3	7	.337	.459	.615	1074	as
2004	Citadel	NCAA	22		NCAA		67	232	69	83	20	2	17	66	3	1	71	49	7		0	3	1	.358	.514	.681	1195	as
	Auburn	NYPL	22	Tor	A-	1b-dh	62	210	33	57	15	1	10	41	0	0	22	55	1	1	1	4	4	.271	.338	.495	833
2005	Lansing	Midw	23	Tor	A	1b-dh	46	168	22	45	9	2	11	36	0	0	20	47	2	5	0	1	1	.268	.351	.542	893
	Dunedin	FSL	23	Tor	A+	1b-dh	29	112	28	43	4	2	14	39	0	1	16	32	1	2	0	0	2	.384	.465	.830	1295
	N Hampshre	East	23	Tor	AA	1b-dh	47	170	15	42	13	1	7	23	2	0	10	58	1	1	0	0	4	.247	.293	.459	752
2006	N Hampshre	East	24	Tor	AA	1b	135	475	78	118	25	1	27	69	0	2	51	158	11	6	1	1	5	.248	.335	.476	811

Minor League Totals - 3 Season(s)							319	1135	176	305	66	7	69	208	2	3	119	350	16	15	2	6	16	.269	.345	.522	867

His real name is "Rhame B Cannon", in case you really want to know. Heck, Chip Cannon rocks, bottom line!

Travis Buck

2006-10-21T17:40:00.000-04:00

Athletics's 1st round pick in '05 (sandwich comp. pick), Travis Buck's got the name & skills to accelerate his path to the big's in '07. This stud OF has been noted in Oakland's Arizona Fall League news:

Oakland Athletics prospect Travis Buck has been anxiously awaiting his return to the diamond. Out of action with a strained hip flexor and sports hernia, the 22-year-old outfield prospect hasn't stepped to the plate since July 13, when he went 2-for-4 for Double-A Midland against Wichita.
Buck didn't have to wait long to make an impact in his debut with the Phoenix Desert Dogs on Oct. 16. In his first at-bat, he blooped a single and scored on Chip Cannon's home run. An inning later, the 36th overall selection in the 2005 First-Year Player Draft ripped a three-run homer. Buck finished 3-for-6, falling a triple shy of the cycle, in Phoenix's 14-6 victory over the Peoria Seguaros.
Here's how some of Buck's AFL teammates fared from Oct. 11-17 as Phoenix dropped four of its six games.

As a 1st rounder, he should be expected to be put on OAK's 40-man roster next season in '07 and some playing time if A's don't resign Jay Payton in LF or have other OF plans. Buck was given $950K as signing bonus in '05 when drafted, thus, implicitly, OAK has lots of faith and high expectation of this young man. So far, he has excelled in all minor-league levels up to AA. Let's just hope that A's don't trade him away for a free-agent to be somewhere down the road. Travis has shown the potential thus far to be the next Nick Swisher (a 1st rounder, too, in '02).

Batting Statistics

Year	Team	Lg	Age	Org.	Level	Pos	G	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	SB	CS	BB	SO	HBP	IBB	SH	SF	DP	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS

2003	Arizona St	NCAA	19		NCAA		66	239	59	78	13	3	4	46	12	2	35	28	11		5	2	9	.326	.432	.456	888	amer-frsh
2004	Arizona St	NCAA	20		NCAA		59	225	64	84	16	1	9	58	13	3	41	34	11		6	3	6	.373	.486	.573	1059	as
2005	Arizona St	NCAA	21		NCAA		67	288	82	110	24	3	6	43	27	9	28	35	6		6	1	5	.382	.446	.549	995	cws-as, as
	Vancouver	Nwest	21	Oak	A-	of	9	36	7	13	1	0	2	9	1	1	5	8	0	0	0	0	3	.361	.439	.556	995
	Kane Cty	Midw	21	Oak	A	of	32	123	17	42	13	0	1	22	3	1	19	19	0	1	1	1	4	.341	.427	.472	899
2006	Stockton	Calif	22	Oak	A+	of	34	126	24	44	17	3	3	26	2	1	14	18	0	0	0	5	3	.349	.400	.603	1003
	Midland	Tex	22	Oak	AA	of	50	212	32	64	22	1	4	22	9	1	22	39	3	1	1	0	5	.302	.376	.472	848

Minor League Totals - 2 Season(s)							125	497	80	163	53	4	10	79	15	4	60	84	3	2	2	6	15	.328	.399	.511	910

More on Parity by Dan Wetzel

2006-10-21T03:06:00.000-04:00

Baseball's parity principle

Yahoo! Sports' Wetzel wrote on the payroll subject from this season. It's clear that a Wal-Mart-size payroll does not guarantee a championship, maybe not even a postseason ticket (e.g. Boston). Teams, get wise, spending more does NOT win more games.

Do you know that Yankees has ~$164.5 millions committed for 2007 season salary, already??!!

2007: $164.5M
2008: $111M
2009: $78.45M
2010: $41M
2011: $4M

Thanks to mlb4u.com for the reference.

Gammons on Parity

2006-10-18T02:03:00.000-04:00

Playoffs show parity at work

Of the top 13 payrolls, only the Mets (fifth, $101M) have more than one postseason win; the Yankees (first, $199M) have one. The Tigers were 14th at $82M, Oakland 21st at $62M, the Cardinals 13th at $87M, which means that four of the top 17 payrolls made it to the postseason, three of the top 10, and only one of those, the Mets, are in the final four.

When Bud Selig led the coup against Fay Vincent on Labor Day, 1992, the primary rationale was that Vincent was too closely aligned with the big-market clubs that opposed widespread revenue-sharing. Now the World Series will be played with either the 14th-ranked Tigers or 21st-ranked Athletics.

Without a salary cap, baseball still has parity (strong, in fact) among teams with significant payroll differences. However, credit should NOT be given to Mr. Selig, who blindly thinks (thought, maybe but probably still thinks) that the success of a team is solely based on its salary. It is evident to conclude the commissioner's position on the matter from the last labor agreement, specifically in luxury tax & revenues sharing issues. It's great that teams not with the top-quartile payroll are in the playoff. It gives their fans hope and results that they deserve. Detroit Tigers proves it that it can be done with smart personnel moves & management. They did it with their young guys from trades and waiver pick-up's plus valuable veteran free agent signings (e.g. Rodríguez, Rogers, & Ordóñez)ont onclick="BLOG_clickHandler(this)" class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_11">. So maybe teams like the Pirates & Royals could make the playoff in a few years if they become smart soon.

ESPN's Keith Law & Inside Edge on ALDS DET vs. NYY Game 2

2006-10-05T19:14:00.000-04:00

Yankees miss golden opportunity

Inside Edge's Pitcher Report Card on Mussina: B-

Inside Edge's Pitcher Report Card on Verlander: C+

Source: ESPN

ALDS Notes - DET vs. NYY Game 2

2006-10-05T16:31:00.000-04:00

Final Score: 4:3; Series Tied, 1:1

Rookie pitcher, Verlander had a solid outing against the "New Muder Row" Yankee lineup this afternoon. His 98-mph fastballs and moving change-up's were thrown for strikes. NYY hitters are famously known for their patience and pitch selection. His one mistake pitch to Damon was slammed into the upperdeck in right field for a 3-run HR. That was all the $200 million lineup scored against the probable Rookie of the Year winner.

Yankees missed many scoring opportunities with runners on base & in scoring positions. In total, 20 LOBs are resulted from untimely hitting. Mussina, their starter threw his knuckle-curves well with solid fastballs that took advantage of sometime impatient (or you can call it "being aggressive"). Marcus Thams, Detroit's DH went 3-3 against Moose and was the difference maker in the game.

Tigers relievers, Zumaya's 100+mph fastballs & Todd Jones' sneaky sliders were great. Not to overlook Jamie Walker's relief of starter, Verlander in any way. The relievers' effective pitching without giving up any runs was the key for DET to win the game with a one-run lead and to tie the series after 2 games on the road.

NOTES FROM THE GAME
Bottom of 1st: After Damon leading off the game with a single, Jeter who had a 5-5 game in Game 1 decided to be a "team player" and attempted to bunt. His bunt popped up, straight up for the catcher on the first pitch he saw. 1 out, runner stayed on 1st, on 1 pitch. Terrible judgement by any means. A guy who was in the hunt for a batting title decided to bunt and "sacrifice" himself in attempt to move the runner over. The thinking and decision-making have always been the hardest criticism of Jeter and a very fair one in his entire career thus far. Baseball Prospectus guys discussed this in numerous occasions in their publication. It's just unwise to give up an out when you are one of the top hitters in the league.

After Abreu was walked and loaded up 1st & 2nd, 4th hitter, Sheffield came up to the plate. The Tigers were playing him to pull (a common practice in AL for him), the 1st baseman, Casey was playing was off the 1st baseline behind the runner. Sheffield stroke out on a hard, moving fastball thrown by Verlander. He didn't get a chance to pull the ball.

The next batter, Giambi was walked to loaded up the bases. Rodríguez, NYY's regular-season RBI leader stroke out on 3 pitches. The pitch sequence were 101mph fastball middle & low and swung at and missed, 101mph fastball in and was fouled on the ground behind the plate, and 85mph hammering curve and looked at without a swing. Mr. March, the '05 AL MVP was 0-4 in this game. So expect the NY media to be all over him in tomorrow's newspapers & on radio shows.

At the bottom of the 2nd, runners on 1st & 2nd with 2 outs, Jeter came up to bat. After swinging the first pitch foul and a ball, Yankee captain grounded out to SS for a FC at 2nd. So much for CaptainClutch. By the way, Carlos Delgado of the New York Mets, who played his first playoff game last night went 4-5 with a HR and 2 RBIs (the HR was solo, he got his 2nd RBI from a single)to helped his team to win the game. People probably don't talk about Delgado's performance as much as Jeter's 5-5 game, but that's just part of the Yankee blinded bandwagon

On the top of the 4th, with 2 outs and speedy Guillén on 3rd base, Craig Monroe who lead Tiges with 28HR dropped down a squeeze bunt on the first pitch in trying to score a run. The idea was probably because 3B, Rodríguez was playing way back and if Monroe had dropped down a good bunt down the 3rd base line, he would have been sate on an infield hit. His bunt went right back to pitcher, Mussina for an easy out to first. Monroe should have been trying to drive in a run in that situation as a slugger who had 92RBI in the regular season, especially he hit a double in his first-at against Mussina. Tigers' "forcing-runs" strategy once again was at display and didn't work out so far in the series.

GAME TURNING POINT
Thames lead off the top of the 7th with a single. Inge at the plate, tried to out down a bunt to move the runner to 2nd with the game tied at 3. 1st pitched was a ball and the 2nd one was a pass-ball by catcher, Posada, runner on 1st moved to 2nd. Posada's pass-ball problem, which happened twice in the game would hurt his team sometime in key situations. The SS was holding the runner at 2nd and the 3B was playing on the edge of the grass on a "stay" play, expecting a tag play at 3rd. Inge laid down the bunt on the 3rd pitch and successfully moved the runner on 2nd to 3rd. 1 out, lead-off hitter, Granderson fouled 2 pitches after a 0-2 count and slapped a line drive to left for a triple and drove in the ahead run. Without the pass-ball, the runner would still have scored on the triple. The run was the game-winning run and one that was executed with a plan by the Tigers.

Tigers' decision to bunt with a runner on 1st with no outs shows their strategy to put pressue on the defense and pitcher to score a run or two in such situation. Playing against such high-scoring team like the Yankees is difficult. However, as a team that tries to score as many runs as possible, even it's only one or two runs at a time is the optimal plan. The only problem with the particular play in the game is that the batter up, Inge has power (27HRs, 29 2Bs, & .463SLG) and the on-deck hitter, Granderson is a free-swinger who strikes out regularly74Ks in 596ABs). Tigers showed that they had confidence in their relief pitching and understood the importance of trying to score runs with certainty when runners get on base.

If DET takes advantage of every on-base situation, either with bunts or hit&run's, they could force enough runs on the scoreboard. It may be difficult, or rather unlikely to keep up with the NYY's offense scoring. However, like Tigers exemplified today's game, they have a chance of winning a game at a time when they generate runs with sound strategies.

Blue Jays' Off-Season Plan by GM Ricciardi

2006-10-04T18:27:00.000-04:00

Ricciardi lays out offseason agenda

Official release by Toronto relating to its off-season plans about free-agents-to-be and other personnel issues. Blue Jays finished 2nd place in the AL East division with 87 wins, which is a 7-win improvement over the previous season.

Coming into the '06 season, the Canadian club aggressively increased its payroll and acquired big name free agents in Burnett & Ryan and traded for Glaus & Overbay. The final result isn't optimal as expected, as they failed to make the postseason, but still a success in terms of being a competitor and increasing ticket sales.

The biggest upcoming issue for Jays will be its franchise CF Vernon Wells who will become a free agents after the '07 season. Wells has expressed his interest to play elsewhere, because of Toronto's north-of-the-border geography & being the lone African-American on the club. The club should have enough money to re-sign Wells before he becomes a free-agent if they wish to. The question is whether the club could convince the player they drafted back in '97 to stay around. The club not only need to provide monetary incentive (a nice, long-term contract), but also their commitment of being competitive in their division. Sporting News's Ken Rosenthal discussed Wells' situation recently.

WELLS VS. BELTRAN

Center fielder Vernon Wells says he wants to sign a contract extension with the Blue Jays, but his price could be exorbitant. Wells almost certainly will seek a contract similar to Carlos Beltran's seven-year, $119 million deal with the Mets.

Outrageous? Not when you consider that Wells, a free agent after next season, boasts numbers that are nearly identical to what Beltran's were at the same level of service following the 2003 season.

Beltran: .288 batting average, .350 on-base, .478 slugging.

Wells: .288 batting average, .336 on-base, .492 slugging.

Beltran's contract with the Mets began at age 28, Wells will be a free agent at 29. Beltran is a switch-hitter and proficient base stealer; Wells is a right-handed hitter who rarely runs. Wells, however, has two won Gold Gloves, Beltran none.

While the Jays again plan to raise payroll, they're not likely to go to $17 million per season for Wells. Even if Wells agrees to a hometown discount, his average salary figures to be at least $15 million.

Then again, it might behoove Wells to take less from the Jays rather than face possible competition from Andruw Jones and Torii Hunter on the open market after next season.

Vernon Wells is looking to sign a big contract extension this off-season. (Gregory Shamus / Getty Images)

Wells isn't as well-publicized as either of those players, but one rival executive calls him "the best player I saw this season." That might be overstating it, but Wells clearly is one of the game's top all-around players.

If the Jays can't sign Wells, the Angels would be an obvious trade possibility; the Rangers could be another if they lost Gary Matthews Jr. as a free agent.

Blue Jays have 5 free agents after this season:

Frank Catalanotto
Ted Lilly
Bengie Molina
Justin Speier
Gregg Zaun

Zaun is the only player that will probably to brought back for '07. Catalanotto is a fan-favorite in Toronto, but with young OFs like Reed Johnson & Adam Lind waiting for regular playing time, "Frank the Cat" won't re-signed. Lilly has been a good starter for the club, however, his blow-up with manager, John Gibbons this summer implied his chemistry problem with the dugout boss. Gibbons will be sticking around as long as Toronto doesn't have a disastrous season in the near-future. Thus, Jays GM may have to think hard about whether bringing Lilly back with a nice contract is good for the club. Catcher Molina has been a solid contributor to the club in'06, but complained about his playing time at time. His '07 option of $7.5 million probably won't be exercised, rather, he will be offered for a contract paying less than the amount on per-season basis. Relief pitcher, Speier is an above-average one in the league and played well in the setup role for the Jays. He may be offered a 2-year contract that wouldn't be one with the biggest dollar figure among bids.

ESPN's Jerry Crasnick on Top '06~'07 free agents

COWBOY UP's OFF-SEASON PLAN for TOR:

TOR has ~$60M in salary commitment for '07 season & will have a budget of ~$75~80M -- $15~20M to spend this off-season.

Re-sign:
Bengie Molina, C/DH, 32 - 3-year, $4.5 mil. per (made $5M in '06 with $7.5M option for '07)
Justin Speier, RP, 33 - 2-year, $2.5 mil. per (made $1.9M in '05 & $2.25M in '06)
Gregg Zaun, C/DH, 35 - 1-year, $1.25 mil. (made $1.05M in '05 & $1M from option in '06)

Sign:
1 or 2 SPs of the following free agents:
Tony Armas Jr., RHP, 28 - 3-year, $4M per ($2.1M, 2006)
Adam Eaton, RHP, 28 - 3-year, $3.5M per ($4.65M, 2006)
Wade Miller, RHP, 30 - 2-year, $2M per ($1M plus $1M in incentives, 2006)
Randy Wolf, RHP, 30 - 3-year, $5.5M per (4 years/$22.5M, 2003-06)

1 SP of the following free agents:
Gil Meche, RHP, 28 - 4-year, $7M per ($3.7M plus $0.225M in incentives, 2006)
Barry Zito, RHP, 28 - 5-year, $11M per (4 years/$9.3M, 2002-05), plus $8.5M option, 2006)

1 or 2 RPs (if TOR doesn't re-sign Speier) of the following free agents:
Chad Bradford, 32 - 3-year, $1.75 per (1 year/$1.4M, 2006)
Steve Kline, LHP, 34 - 2-year, $2.25M per (2 years/$5.5M, 2005-06)
Scott Schoeneweis, LHP, 33 - 2-year, $2.5M per (2 years/$5.2M, 2005-06)
Jamie Walker, LHP, 34 - 2-year, $2.5M per (1 year/$0.9M plus incentives, 2005, $1.25M option, 2006)

Position Players:
Nomar Garciaparra, 1B/DH, 33 - 2-year, $ 7.5M per (1 year/$6M plus $4M in incentives based on at-bat's, 2006 : $5.5M actually earned)

1 of the following middle-infielder free agents:
Adam Kennedy, 2B, 30 - 3-year, $3.75M per (3 years/$8.85M, 2004-06)
Mark Loretta, 2B, 35 - 2-year, $3.5M per (04:$2.5M, 05:$2.75M, 06:$3M)
Alex L. Gonzalez, SS, 29 - 2-year, $3M per ($3M, 2006)
Julio Lugo, SS, 30 - 2-year, $4 per ( $1 year/$3.25M, 2005, plus $4.95M option, 2006)

2B/SS Russ Adams will be starting '07 in the minors, thus, TOR will need to decide whether to play Aaron Hill at 2B or SS and sign a free agent middle-infielder. Adam Kennedy would be the best signing for the opening, but a long-term contract would be necessary. Loretta is a good short-term sign and a good club house presence with his experience. Gonzalez is a defensive upgrade but a offense liability, still a very decent option for the short-term. Lugo has been desired by TOR, but his price may be too high for what he could brings to the table. Also, his strengths in aggressive base-running and base-stealing don't go well with TOR's team strategy.

TOR could use an additional hitter at the DH position to protect Wells, Glaus, and Overbay. Garciaparra could be a great DH option who can play some 1B to rest Overbay, however, his price might be too high for his high injury risk.

TOR needs a #3 starter behind Halladay & Burnett. Armas, Eaton, Miller, and Wolf are bets TOR could take on, all have injury histories. However, their come-back
Meche is the best free-agent SP option mentioned above, in terms of value and performance. Many clubs are interested in him, though, and his price would rise out of proportion, that is the downside. Zito would be a great #2 starter, but his price is very high. TOR would be committing a lot of money for the future if they wish to get the best SP available in this off-season. It may not be the best move if they wish to consider re-signing Wells (which at this point, doesn't seem likely).

Blue Jays needs another RP in the bullpen and a left-handed one. Bradford & Walker are the best options who will provide the best value and effective performances.

ALDS Notes DET vs. NYY Game 1

2006-10-04T13:41:00.000-04:00

Robertson made a mistake with an inside pitch that was high but not inside enough, Giambi hit it out as a flyball out in most other parks but at Yankee Stadium it's a Home-Run.

DET was trying to make a statement about their aggressiveness and eager to win the game. Tigers want to be aggressive with base stealing & hit-and-run's to generate runs against the top-run-producing NYY lineup.

Key Scoring Opportunity (Missed)
On top of the 2nd inning, Tigers led off the inning with a double by Ordóñez and followed by a walk to Guillén. 6th hitter, Rodríguez who hits .300AVG & .332OBP this season, at the plate. After a 0-1 count, Tigers attemped to double-steal 2nd & 3rd. Ordóñez on 2nd did not get a good jump and pitcher, Wang threw a hard sinking fastball inside to right-handed hitter at the plate. Ordóñez was easily threw out at 3rd base. Rodríguez stroke out with the at-bat, the 2nd out of the inning, withou moving the 2nd base runner, Guillén to 3rd. DET didn't score any runs in that inning.

Having a speedy runner at 3rd with 2 outs facing a sinker pitcher and a catcher notoriously known for pass ball issues is a run-scoring opportunity without a hit. Balls could have bounced to the backstop and the 3rd base runner could have scored.

The double-steal play by Tigers is a rather unwise decision. Wang throws strikes and facing a 1-0 count, Tigers should have opted to double-steal on a better count (e.g. 2-0 or 2-1) and/or in a later count as a surprise. The runner on 2nd, Ordóñez has average speed at best. He didn't get a good jump off the pitcher at all. However, because double-steal was called, he had to go. With the 6th batter up and a hitter who can hit, using double-steal isn't an optimal startegy to generate runs. Posada behind the plate throws out 37% of base-stealers this year, which is in the top-tier of catchers. The strategy didn't work because of the runner's speed on 2nd base and the count for the hitter. If DET wanted to generate runs, the hitter should have been asked to bunt to move the runners to 2nd & 3rd. Follow-up batters, Monroe & Thame are fly-balls hitters who could easily hit sacrifice fly to score at least a run. Tigers should have more confidence in their 6th batter in that situation, too.

Updated Playoff Pitching Matchups

2006-10-04T13:06:00.000-04:00

STL vs. SD (reg. season head-to-head record: SD 4-2)
Game 1: at SD
Tue, Oct 3 - 4:05 pm EDT
C. Carpenter vs. J. Peavy
Game 2: at SD
Thu, Oct 5 - 4:05 pm EDT
J. Weaver vs. D. Wells
Game 3: at STL
Sat, Oct 7 - TBA
C. Young vs. J. Suppan
*Game 4: at STL
Sun, Oct 8 - TBA * - If necessary
W. Williams vs. C. Carpenter
*Game 5: at SD
Mon, Oct 9 - TBA * - If necessary
J. Weaver vs. J. Peavy

NOTE: STL will use Carpenter as their Game 4 starter at home if they return home for the game in the series. They are taking advantage of the extra day rest between the 1st & 2nd games. Carpenter will have his normal-5-day/game rest for Game 4. If STL moves on to the League Championship series, he will be able to start the 1st game, as well.

Wells was moved up to start Game 2 for Padres. The decision was made prior to Game 1, which SD lost. The move to pitch Young at home may help the young pitcher's first playoff experience.

LAD vs. NYM (reg. season head-to-head record: NYM 4-3)
Game 1: at NYM
Wed, Oct 4 - 4:05 pm EDT
D. Lowe vs. J. Maine
Game 2: at NYM
Thu, Oct 5 - 8:05 pm EDT
H. Kuo vs. T. Glavine
Game 3: at LAD
Sat, Oct 7 - TBA
S. Trachsel vs. G. Maddux
*Game 4: at LAD
Sun, Oct 8 - TBA
O. Pérez vs. B. Penny
*Game 5: at NYM<br>Mon, Oct 9 - TBA
D. Lowe vs. T. Glavine

NOTE: Hernández of NYM is out for the Division Series, thus, Maine will be used as Game 1 starter. Glavine is not avaialable for the 1st game, because he would've been on a less-than-normal 4-day rest. Game 4 starter for Mets should be an open slot, that will be determined in coming days.

Maddux was pushed back to start Game 3 at home and Kuo will be starting in Game 2 in New York. It's a rather risky move to start a rookie on the road, in a determining game. Maddux would be on a 5-day rest if he were to pitch Game 2. The decision to start Kuo, who has never pitched a full season could possibly change if LAD loses Game 1.

OAK vs. MIN (reg. season head-to-head record: MIN 6-4)
Game 1: at MIN
Tue, Oct 3 - 1:05 pm EDT
B. Zito vs. J. Santana
Game 2: at MIN
Wed, Oct 4 - 1:05 pm EDT
E. Loaiza vs. B. Bonser
Game 3: at OAK
Fri, Oct 6 - 4:05 pm EDT
B. Radke vs. D. Haren
*Game 4: at OAK
Sat, Oct 7 - TBA * - If necessary
C. Silva vs. R. Harden
*Game 5: at MIN
Sun, Oct 8 - TBA * - If necessary
B. Zito vs. J. Santana

NOTE: A's pushed up Loaiza to start Game 2 instead of Haren. The decision possibly came after winning Game 1. Loiaza has been shaky all season, thus using him after having one win in the series already spread out the risk and leverage better starters for later games when OAK returns home.

MIN might use Santana on short-rest in Game 3 if they were down 0-2 in the series. Twins have good matchups from Bonser and Radke in Game 2 & 3, respectively. Using experienced Radke on the road instead of rookie Bonser is wise choice.

DET vs. NYY (reg. season head-to-head record: NYY 5-2)
Game 1: at NYY Tue, Oct 3 - 8:05 pm EDT
N. Robertson vs. C. Wang
Game 2: at NYYr>Wed, Oct 4 - 8:05 pm EDT
J. Verlander vs. M. Mussina
Game 3: at DET Fri, Oct 6 - 8:05 pm EDT
R. Johnson vs. K. Rogers
*Game 4: at DET Sat, Oct 7 - TBA * - If necessary
J. Wright vs. J. Bonderman
*Game 5: at NYY Sun, Oct 8 - TBA * - If necessary
N. Robertson vs. C. Wang

NOTE: NYY's Johnson is a probably starter for Game 3. Different status reports on his injured back have not been confirmed with certainty. Lidle could be used to replace either Johnson or Wright in the rotation.

DET using Verlander on the road in Game 2 after being down 0-1 in the series is not the optimal choice. Rogers & Bonderman pitched on Sunday, and would have been on short-rest if either were to start on Wed. DET would need to win one in New York to take advantage of Rogers' experience and playing at home. The pressure would be too great to overcome to have a shot at winning the series if they were down 0-2 going back to Detroit. Tigers do have the best road-record in Major League, 49-32.

AP's Jim Litke on Small-Budget Twins' Success

2006-10-04T13:04:00.000-04:00

A consolation prize for teams that can't afford to win

"Not only did those two help turn the Twins' fortunes around; they stabilized the left side of the infield for about $1 million combined -- or 1-46th of what the Yankees are paying Alex Rodriguez and Derek Jeter to do. Ryan ultimately got the pop he wanted from Joe Mauer and Torii Hunter, two players the Twins drafted and brought up through their system. But how long that will work is anybody's guess."

Jeter's Hitting Report from ALDS Game 1

2006-10-04T11:06:00.000-04:00

Jeter's 5 at-bats: Pitch-by-pitch

Neat, deatiled scouting reoprt.

El Duque Out, Maine In

2006-10-04T10:26:00.000-04:00

ESPN Radio just updated the status of Mets' Game 1 starter, Orlando Hernández is OUT. John Maine will start in his place vs. Derek Lowe at 4:00 EDT.

Hernández may be out the entire Division Series.

ALDS Notes - OAK vs. MIN Game 1

2006-10-04T10:21:00.000-04:00

Pitching
Both Zito & Santana looked great yesterday. Zito took advantage of Twins hitters' aggressiveness at the plate & on the bases with balls outside the strike zone & varying deliveries. Zito threw mostly curves & change-ups with high fastballs as baits for hitters to swing outside the zone. Minnesota had to adjust to look for hitting the off-speed's instead of fastballs because of that. His curves & especially change-ups had a lot of movements and were strikes consistently. That was a tough problem for the home team offense in Game 1.

Santana was in the the usual Cy Young form, but made a few mistakes, particular when facing Frank Thomas. Johan missed few change-ups over the middle of the plate that were easier to hit if hitters had expected them after a fastball. Overall, he pitched a good game, just didn't get the run support he needed to win. You have to give credit to him for picking his team up. After SS Barlett made an error to miss a potential double-play to load 1st & 2nd base with no outs on the top of the 7th inning, Santana managed to get out of the inning without giving up a run. That's a team player and big-time leader on display right there. Barlett is in his 2nd season at the Major League SS position and playing his first postseason. Santana showed his cool and maturity by telling him it's ok and got out of the jam on his own. This is an positive implication of a true winner Santana is as a teammate and player.

Hitting
Frank Thomas proved again that he's still got the bat that will hurt you. He knew and expected the pitches from Santana and punished the mistakes made by the pitcher. Cap off to Big Hurt. He's the dangerous hitter that he's always been and he is the catalyst and offense factor for the A's.

Game-Changing Point
Twins trailed the entire game, and their biggest chance of getting back into the game came in the bottom of the 8th. After Santana getting his team out of trouble in the 7th with no outs and runners on 1st & 2nd, White hit a HR to put one on the scoreboard at the bottom of the half. 2:1, OAK, going into the 8th.

MIN started off the 8th inning with a double from Barlett. Lead-off hitter Castillo was at the plate and being down by one run and middle of the line-up coming up, a bunt seemed like a logical decision. Yes, Castillo tried to bunt to the right side with Zito's curve on the first pitch. He missed, and Barlett took off after the pitch delivery and was dancing between 2nd and 3rd base. A's catcher, Kendall alertly threw to 2nd base and Barlett stumbled his way back to 2nd base to avoid the pick-off. Luckily, the throw was off, otherwise, Barlett would have been out crawling back to the base. He didn't look like a good base-runner out there. He must have took off early before the intended bunt was executed.

The next pitch, Castillo didn't try to bunt again and swung the ball foul grounding to right. Zito threw two off-speed's to the hitter thus far. With the way the movements on his pitches, it was difficult to put down a good bunt. That could have been the reason why MIN took off the bunt and let Castillo to try to hit to the right side instead. Castillo instead grounded out to third and Barlett couldn't move to third with one out. Barlett stopped in-between 2nd & 3rd when the next batter, Punto grounded out to the 2nd baseman. That was just not a smart base running move. Barlett was looking at the 3rd base coach, maybe he thought that the 2nd baseman was throwing to 3rd for a tag. However, his instinct seemed rather inexperienced and didn't anticipate the correct running play. When there's 1 out and a ball hitting to the right side, defense isn't likely to throw the ball to 3rd for a tag to avoid an error and letting the runner on 2nd score. Defense would most likely opt to get the sure-out at 1st base to get the 2nd out and leave the runner moving to 3rd. Barlett should have easily taken off to 3rd base when seeing the ground ball going to the right side of the infield and turn around the base to see if the ball was thrown away to potentially score on the ground ball.

Twins ended up not scoring any runs in that 8th inning after a slashing line-out by Mauer to left. However, it's the decision and execution of the team that might have caused a chance to tie the ball game.

Castillo should have tried to bunt again on 0-1 count, after missing the first bunt attempt. It wouldn't have been easy to lay a good bunt to the right side with Zito's curve, though. The OAK 3rd baseman was playing "stay" on the first bunt attempt and the shortstop was holding the runner on 2nd. If Castillo could have laid a bunt down 3rd baseline, it'd have been a nice play, too, forcing the pitcher to field the pitch and give the runner on 2nd a chance to run down to 3rd. MIN opted to have Castillo hitting to the right side, though, on the 2nd pitch. If he had grounded the ball fair and been out, the runner on 2nd would still have made it to 3rd safely.

This particular situation was the game-turning point. Twins came up short and failed to deliver, and lost the game.

Last Minute ALDS Game 1 Yankee Note

2006-10-03T19:27:00.000-04:00

NY Media has been blasting A-Rod since Monday about him batting 6th in the lineup.
NY Post's King on A-Rod

On ESPN Radio's Stephen A. Smith show today, the host criticized the Yankees and partially A-Rod for failing to meeting their expectation of winning a World Series Championship since 2001. Rodríguez is singled out again because of his salary size being the highest paid player in the game. Mussina & Giambi were also mentioned because of their $20 million paycheck for this season. YES Network's Michael Kay incorrectly and ignorantly pointed out that Yankees is only paying less than the ~$21 mil. amount for '06 season, because the contribution of Texas club in his trade to NYY. Thus, he should not be considered as a player making $20 million this season and excluded from the conversation. Obviously that's an incorrect determent to judge and expect what a player's performance should be; Stephen A. correctly with enthusiasm noted that.

On Mike & the Mad Dog on The Fan radio show last week, "Mad Dog" Chris Russo suggested the idea of intentionally the hitter ahead of A-Rod, if he were batting 4th (or the middle-of-the-lineup). He just thinks that A-Rod's head is just so screwed up now with all the criticisms that he won't be able to deliver now. It really all comes down to how Mr. Rodríguez performs in the postseason this year.

Top 25 Highest Paid Players in '06

ESPN's Expert Picks

2006-10-03T12:40:00.000-04:00

ESPN experts: Who's going to win?

Olney's Top 10 Matchups in AL & NL
Top 10 matchups of the NLDS
Top 10 matchups of the ALDS

ESPN Page 2's 100 Reasons To Watch Playoffs

2006-10-03T12:37:00.000-04:00

100 reasons to watch playoffs

Plus:
Page 2: Season in review

Without the humor of Page2, life would be much harder...

Sports Ticker: How They Got There

2006-10-03T09:26:00.000-04:00

• How they got there: The Los Angeles Dodgers

• How they got there: The New York Mets

• How they got there: The St. Louis Cardinals

• How they got there: The San Diego Padres

• How they got there: The Minnesota Twins

• How they got there: The New York Yankees

• How they got there: The Detroit Tigers

• How they got there: The Oakland Athletics

Interesting background information on 8 poayoff teams.

SI's John Donovan on Oakland Athletics in the Playoff

2006-10-03T09:17:00.000-04:00

Fifth time's the charm?
"Does Harden make the difference? Can a deep rotation with a true stopper, and one of the best bullpens in baseball, help the A's turn the postseason corner? Can that solid defense, maybe the best in Oakland history? Or that underrated lineup?"

Do the A's have it?
Donovan's pick: MIN in 5

Small-market, moneyball-minded A's has a tough series vs. the Twins starting on the road today. It'd be some kind of a positive statement if OAK hitters could score some runs off Johan Santana. They'd build some momentum for the rest of the series, even if they don't win against the Twins ace in today's 1st game. A's have an above-average bullpen, and as long as they don't tax the staff early in the series, those guys who don't stretch until the 5th inning or later will be a value to them if the series does go deep.

Cy Young - NL

2006-10-02T20:24:00.000-04:00

NL is known for its strong pitching, almost as always. The 2006 Season is no short of strong pitching performance from All-Star caliber arms.

NOTE: Closers have been excluded from the discussions of possible Cy Young award winners this season. Closers usually need some monstrous stats with much less innings pitched than starters. Unless there are no stand-out starters in a specific season and a closer puts up HOF-like season, Cy Young usually belong to guys who used their arms for ~200 (if not more) innings. The argument for how valuable a dominant closer is for a winning team is another (long) discussion. Simply put, a stud starter who puts up top-of-the-league #'s over 200 innings contributes a significant part to a team's success (or failure, but it wouldn't that guy's fault).

Honorable Mentions for Closers this season are at the end of this blog.

HOU: Roy Oswalt
Oswalt had an All-Star season with NL-leading 2.98 ERA in 220 2/3inn pitched. His contribution to Astros' late-season run for the NL Central title gives him more credit as a big-time ace. His #'s are consistent all-season-long.

	G	GS	W	L	SV	CG	SHO	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	K	ERA	WHIP	BAA
April	6	6	4	1	0	0	0	42.1	42	15	13	2	9	27	2.76	1.20	.271
May	6	6	1	2	0	0	0	38.2	42	16	15	4	7	26	3.49	1.27	.282
June	4	4	1	1	0	1	0	29.0	31	12	12	3	6	21	3.72	1.28	.284
July	6	5	2	3	0	1	0	35.0	37	12	12	5	5	25	3.09	1.20	.274
August	5	5	2	1	0	0	0	32.0	32	12	12	1	3	28	3.38	1.09	.252
September	6	6	5	0	0	0	0	43.2	36	9	9	3	8	39	1.85	1.01	.224

Total

220.2

220

166

2.98

1.17

.263

His only weakness in the eyes of voters would be his strikeout rate; Oswalt only stroke out 166 all season, which implies a possible decline in his dominance over hitters with power. (the Astros ace stroke out 206 &184 in '04 & '05, respectively, which has been slowly declining, including this season) Getting guys with strikeouts sound much sexier to those baseball writers who vote for the award than a pitcher who uses much of the defense behind him. Only Greg Maddux in '94 won a Cy Young with a so-so 156Ks and he had a 1.56ERA that season, Tom Glavine won in '98 with 157Ks and he had 20 wins& 2.47ERA, & Doug Drabek won in '90 with 131Ks and he had 22 wins and 2.76ERA are Cy Young winner starters with less than 180Ks since '90.

Roy's 2.98ERA is great by any standards for pitchers with 200+inn thrown in a season, but his middle-of-the-pack 15wins & strikeouts will be held against him when voters compare to STL ace, Carpenter (see below).

STL: Chris Carpenter

Carpenter put up another solid season with Cardinals this season. His 15 wins, 3.09ERA, and NL-leading 1.07WHIP are impressive, but they are not going to show up in the Top 20 season list in a Bill James stats book. His WHIP is the most important indicator of his dominance that will set him apart from other power arms. Only giving up 197Hs & 43BBs over 221 2/3 innings, he knows how to get hitters out and he has 184Ks. Another factor in his favor is his team winning its division. With the almost-collapse of the St. Louis team in September to Houston, Carpenter had to stay in games longer than he should have late in the season with Cardinals' regular closer, Isringhausen out and a depleted, shaky bullpen. His #'s could have been better (i.e. wins & ERA) if STL had a more consistent offense and more reliable relief pitching. Carpenter had a find season with those stats he had, regardless.

	G	GS	W	L	SV	CG	SHO	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	K	ERA	WHIP	BAA
April	6	6	3	1	0	0	0	40.0	36	8	8	4	7	31	1.80	1.08	.235
May	4	4	1	1	0	0	0	25.0	24	15	11	3	12	22	3.96	1.44	.240
June	5	5	2	2	0	0	0	33.0	33	12	12	3	7	35	3.27	1.21	.256
July	6	6	4	1	0	1	1	40.1	31	14	14	4	8	28	3.12	0.97	.220
August	5	5	2	1	0	1	1	38.0	26	13	13	5	1	27	3.08	0.71	.197
September	6	6	3	2	0	3	1	45.1	44	19	18	2	8	41	3.57	1.15	.256

Total

221.2

194

184

3.09

1.07

.235

While his #'s are not as jaw-dropping as his '05 season, Carpenter should be a solid candidate in the final consideration for Cy Young this season. Obvisouly, his stats won't clearly set him apart from the crowd of aces this season, but his contribution to his team holding on (rather than winning it outright) to the division title will help arguing for his case.

P.S. How bad was it for Blue Jays that gave up on Carpenter and now that he could be a multiple Cy Young winner?! (they just didn't have the money to sign him & wait for his return from arm surgury is the truth) This could be considered to be up there with Red Sox giving up on Roger Clemens... Haven't been teams been signing guys who would be out for months, if not an entire year recently? (e.g. Wade Miller with BOS & Dotel with NYY, but those rich boys got the dough)

2005 National League Cy Young Award

                          1st           Max        |       Season Results
Rk Name             Team Place Points Points Share|  W-L   IP  ERA   WHIP  SO SV
+--+----------------+----+-----+------+------+-----+------+---+-----+-----+---+--+
1 Chris Carpenter   STL   19    132    140  0.94 | 21-5  242  2.83  1.06 213
2 Dontrelle Willis  FLA   11    112    140  0.80 | 22-10 236  2.63  1.13 170
3 Roger Clemens     HOU    2     40    140  0.29 | 13-8  211  1.87  1.01 185
4 Roy Oswalt        HOU    0      2    140  0.01 | 20-12 242  2.94  1.20 184
5 Chad Cordero      WSN    0      1    140  0.01 |  2-4   74  1.82  0.97  61 47
5 Andy Pettitte     HOU    0      1    140  0.01 | 17-9  222  2.39  1.03 171

ARI: Brandon Webb
Webb has emerged as Arizona's ace over the last couple of seasons. He has 2nd-best WHIP of 1.13 & 3rd-best 3.10ERA (just behind Carpenter's 3.09) in NL. Winning 16 games for a team that only won 76 is no small effort. He has been considered for the Cy Young honor all season. His #'s are definately convincing enough for him to win the award and he deserves it. However, his not-in-contention club will be a setback for him. It'd be a tough and rather unfair situation for Webb. ARI didn't have a even par relief pitching that could have helped their ace in Webb in the season. Webb established himself as a true All-Star since coming into the league. '06 is the best season for him so far in his young career. Cy Young may not be awarded to him after all, and baseball community should make a note of the awesome sinker pitcher in the desert, regardless.

	G	GS	W	L	SV	CG	SHO	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	K	ERA	WHIP	BAA
April	6	6	4	0	0	0	0	44.2	42	12	11	3	6	25	2.22	1.07	.258
May	6	6	4	0	0	2	2	45.0	42	9	9	2	4	33	1.80	1.02	.252
June	5	5	0	3	0	0	0	33.2	42	22	19	3	9	32	5.08	1.51	.298
July	6	6	4	1	0	1	0	44.0	35	14	12	4	10	35	2.45	1.02	.220
August	4	4	2	1	0	0	0	23.1	25	16	13	3	15	15	5.01	1.71	.287
September	5	5	2	2	0	2	1	40.1	22	11	10	0	4	33	2.23	0.64	.156
October	1	1	0	1	0	0	0	4.0	8	7	7	0	2	5	15.75	2.50	.400

Total

235.0

216

178

3.10

1.13

.246

CHC: Carlos Zambrano
A work-horse, Zambrano didn't have a CG all season, but in 241 innings pitched, he managed to put up top-notch 3.41ERA, 1.29WHIP, & 210Ks along with 16 wins for the disappointing Cubs. Carlos "Mozilla Firefox" (that's another story from last season) always has the dominating power fastballs and devastating curves & sliders since he entered the league. At 25 years-young, he has many more All-Star seasons left in his built-to-last 6'5, 255 frame. His inconsistency with his pitches are his biggest problem. His 115BBs implies his control problem. Hitters only manage to hit only .208 against him this season. If Chicago Cubs had met their "expectation" (i.e. ~92 wins & make the playoff), Carolos might been sitting with ~20 wins with the kind of performance he had in '06. His Ks will be his biggest upside, but his avearge win numbers and 5th rank in ERA & 14th rank in WHIP will be a heavy downside for the award.

CIN: Aaron Harang
Harang has quietly developed into an ace not just on his team's staff but in the entire league. '06 is the big-coming-out party for him with NL-leading 216Ks over 234 1/3 innings. Having 16 wins for a Cincinnati Reds team that was in contention all season, is another strength for his Cy Young chase. His 6 starts in September further proves his worth to his team down the playoff chase (3.83ERA, .98WHIP over 47inn).

	G	GS	W	L	SV	CG	SHO	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	K	ERA	WHIP	BAA
April	6	6	4	1	0	1	1	39.1	40	22	19	6	9	33	4.35	1.25	.263
May	5	5	1	3	0	1	0	33.2	33	17	11	2	8	42	2.94	1.22	.256
June	6	6	4	1	0	1	1	39.1	40	13	13	3	11	34	2.97	1.30	.280
July	6	6	2	2	0	1	0	37.0	40	17	17	3	12	35	4.14	1.41	.278
August	7	6	2	3	0	0	0	38.0	47	20	18	6	12	31	4.26	1.55	.301
September	6	6	3	1	0	2	0	47.0	42	20	20	8	4	41	3.83	0.98	.239

Total

234.1

242

109

216

3.76

1.27

.269

The Red ace doesn't have a top-notch ERA and that could be his biggest weakness among other pitchers. Cincinnati was in the playoff hunt, thus, Harang's consideration won't be subtracted because of his club's record. He is in the middle of his prmie (28yr-young) and will be making the All-Star team for a many seasons if he stays healthy. '06 is a big leap to the elite class from other cannon arms in the leaguefor Harang. Whether or not if he gets the Cy Young, this is truly a memorable season for him.

CIN: Bronson Arroyo
Arroyo, the one-time Pirate player who won a World Series with Red Sox in '04 was traded for Wily Mo Pena, the real-life Pedro Cerrano from "Major League" to the Reds. The trade turned out to be a daylight-robbery of the Boston club for Cincinnati. Arryo was a horse for Reds, pitched NL-leading 240 2/3 innings. In addition, Bronson (named after Charles Bronson) was a strikeout force in '06, striking out 184. His 3.29ERA & 1.19WHIP are in the top-tier in NL. Although, he only managed to earn 14 wins in his hard-working season. He may not receive substantial amounts of votes for the Cy Young, but for CIN, his presence is one of their valuable assets for years to come.

Last 3 years	Team	G	GS	W	L	SV	CG	SHO	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	K	ERA	WHIP	BAA
2004	BOS	32	29	10	9	0	0	0	178.2	171	99	80	17	47	142	4.03	1.22	.249
2005	BOS	35	32	14	10	0	0	0	205.1	213	116	103	22	54	100	4.51	1.30	.266
2006	CIN	35	35	14	11	0	3	1	240.2	222	98	88	31	64	184	3.29	1.19	.243
Career		161	125	47	44	1	4	1	829.0	833	447	388	93	254	551	4.21	1.31	.260

SD: Chris Young
Christopher Ryan Young was traded for Adam Eaton, Akinori Otsuka, and Billy Killian with Terrmel Sledge to the Padres and immediately made a postiive impact on their pitching staff. His 3.46ERA & 1.13WHIP are All-Star worthy (partly contributed by the SD's pitcher-protective ballpark). Young's limited 179 1/3 innings pitched & 11 wins are his biggest setback for Cy Young. He has a strong strikeout rate with 164Ks this season and limits hitters to hit only .206 against him. This young Padres stud doesn't have all it for a Cy Young this season, his pitching performance should make other teams jealous of not having him, nonetheless.

NOTE: Brad Penny was considered Cy Young-bound before the All Star break. Somehow, he turned into Darren Dreifort after the Pittsburgh vacation. It's just rough. It shows how tough and rigorous a Major League season is. You don't and can't win it all unless you win it all the way.

	G	GS	W	L	SV	CG	SHO	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	K	ERA	WHIP	BAA
Pre All Star	19	18	10	2	0	0	0	108.1	103	35	35	7	28	82	2.91	1.21	.249
Post All-Star	15	15	6	7	0	0	0	80.2	103	59	56	12	26	66	6.25	1.60	.317

Total

189.0

206

148

4.33

1.38

.279

Honorable Mentions: Top Closers who will get a few votes for Cy Young, but probably won't win the Cy Young:

Name	Team	G	GS	W	L	SV	CG	SHO	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	K	ERA	WHIP	BAA
Francisco Rodríguez	LAA	69	0	2	3	47	0	0	73.0	52	16	14	6	28	98	1.73	1.10	.197
Trevor Hoffman	SD	65	0	0	2	46	0	0	63.0	48	16	15	6	13	50	2.14	0.97	.205
Billy Wagner	NYM	70	0	3	2	40	0	0	72.1	59	22	18	7	21	94	2.24	1.11	.219
B.J. Ryan	TOR	65	0	2	2	38	0	0	72.1	42	12	11	3	20	86	1.37	0.86	.169
Joe Nathan	MIN	64	0	7	0	36	0	0	68.1	38	12	12	3	16	95	1.58	0.79	.158
J.J. Putz	SEA	72	0	4	1	36	0	0	78.1	59	20	20	4	13	104	2.30	0.92	.207
Mariano Rivera	NYY	63	0	5	5	34	0	0	75.0	61	16	15	3	11	55	1.80	0.96	.223
Chris Ray	BAL	61	0	4	4	33	0	0	66.0	45	22	20	10	27	51	2.73	1.09	.193

COWBOY UP's PICK: Chris Carpenter, STL
The ace-trio of Carpenter, Oswalt, and Webb in the NL in '06 season make the Cy Young award picking more difficult. It'd be easy to just say "pick any of three" or "all of them can share the award". Realistically, it will come down to specific factor that will be considered along major stats. The ERAs, WHIPs, and wins among the three are very close with one another. Carpenter showed more dominance with his pitching with the most strikeouts. Plus that his team made the playoff will be another variable for Cy Young consideration. His opposing average and WHIP will also help his case for his 2nd straight Cy Young honor.

Name	Team	G	GS	W	L	SV	CG	SHO	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	K	ERA	WHIP	BAA
Roy Oswalt	HOU	33	32	15	8	0	2	0	220.2	220	76	73	18	38	166	2.98	1.17	.263
Chris Carpenter	STL	32	32	15	8	0	5	3	221.2	194	81	76	21	43	184	3.09	1.07	.235
Brandon Webb	ARI	33	33	16	8	0	5	3	235.0	216	91	81	15	50	178	3.10	1.13	.246

Playoff Snapshot - NL

2006-10-02T19:01:00.000-04:00

STL vs. SD (reg. season head-to-head record: SD 4-2)
Game 1: at SD
Tue, Oct 3 - 4:05 pm EDT
C. Carpenter vs. J. Peavy
Game 2: at SD
Thu, Oct 5 - 4:05 pm EDT
J. Suppan vs. C. Young
Game 3: at STL
Sat, Oct 7 - TBA
*Game 4: at STL
Sun, Oct 8 - TBA * - If necessary
*Game 5: at SD
Mon, Oct 9 - TBA * - If necessary

STL barely held onto its AL Central crown in the last week of regular season with mediocre pitching & inconsistent hitter performances. STL has the Cy-Young grade ace in Carpenter, but after him, there aren't much solid arms at all. Same thing with Cardinals' offense, Pujlos put up another MVP-level slugger season, but he doesn't have much support and protection around him in the line-up. STL needs its offense to go to work to have a sound chance to win the series without the home-field advantage. Apart from Carpenter, STL's starters of Marquis, Suppan, and Jeff Weaver (sorry, he's nothing like the younger Jered) aren't going to put any decent hitters away. Guys like Rolen, Encarnación, Edmonds & Duncan need to step up big time in the playoff to protect Pujlos. Opposing pitchers aren't going to pitch to Amazin' Albert in October, guaranteed.

SD has a strong starting rotation in young ace, Peavy, great-trade-return, Young, and experienced pitchers, Woody Williams and Wells. Padres' 5th starter, rookie, Hensley won't be starting, but his decent regular season #'s should give warnings to opposing teams when he comes into middle relief in the playoff (187inn, 122K, 76BB, 3.71ERA, 1.34WHIP, & .250 opp. AVG). Padres' superior bullpen is another advantage in the playoff. The company of Linebrink, Adkins, Embree, Meredith, Cassidy, Brian Sweeney, and the all-time saves record holder, Hoffman should put fears into opposing hitters in late-innings. SD doesn't have any big-time sluggers (no one has >25HR), significantly due to its large PetCo Park dimensions. They have the doubles hitters that won't make outfielders' job easy out there (they'd be running around after the ball like canines in PetCo...). Experienced hitters like Brian Giles and Piazza, plus young stars, Adrián González & Khalil Greene should get enough hits off the almost-AAA-like STL pitchers (not include Carpenter, you already know that, of course). Roberts, Cameron, & Barfield will be running when they are on base, which could help generate runs with this average Padres line-up.

STL won't have enough solid starters to get them deep into the series. SD will be squeezing runs out of those no-where-dominating pitchers (STL got some bullpen problems with Isringhausen out for the rest-of-season, do you want Braden Looper to close games for you in the playoff??). Only with Carpenter pitching, the Cards have a good shot of winning a game in the series. SD's much superior pitching from starting to finish will ride them through a below-than-normal performing STL club.

COWBOY UP's PICK: SD in 4

LAD vs. NYM (reg. season head-to-head record: NYM 4-3)
Game 1: at NYM
Wed, Oct 4 - 4:05 pm EDT
D. Lowe vs. O. Hernández
Game 2: at NYM
Thu, Oct 5 - 8:05 pm EDT
G. Maddux vs. T. Glavine
Game 3: at LAD
Sat, Oct 7 - TBA
*Game 4: at LAD
Sun, Oct 8 - TBA
*Game 5: at NYM
Mon, Oct 9 - TBA

NYM is in a lot of trouble, really. Pedro is out for rest of the season, below-.500 finish of the regular season for the fastest club to clinch a playoff spot. Mets' bats have been rather inconsistent lately, although, those big-bats of Beltrán, Delgado, and Wright will come alive sometime (hopefully, sooner than never). Mets have to go to a traded El Duque for Gm. 1, that just doesn't give its fans lots of confidence for a team that seemed to be World Series Championship-bound.

LAD has a much stronger starting rotation in Lowe, Penny, and Maddux. Lowe has an All-Star year and Penny was Cy Young-worthy before the All-Star break. Penny has been struggling since the summer and that should be a concern for the Dodgers. Maddux has been a great trade pick-up for LAD; Mad Dog won't blow any hitters away, but pitching in pitcher-friendly parks like Shea & Dodger Stadium will give him the edge he needs. Kuo, the rookie starter will be the X-Factor in the series. If he could just be good enough like his short regular season experience, LAD will cruise through NYM. LAD's closer, Saito has been a positive surprise of the bullpen. Young relievers like Broxton & Beimel will be important once the starters come out of the games.

NYM has one of the best bullpen this season. You could put a guy with 75-mph fastballs with no off-speed's, he would probably excel as a middle-relief guy for the Mets this year. Mets really need solid starts from old-timers, Glavine, Hernández, and Trachsel to utilize its powerful bullpen. Mets' offense is arguably the best and the most complete in the NL. With José Reyes leading off, who can bunt for hits & steal his way around the bases, Mets will have sufficient run-scoring opportunities. Experienced hitters in Shawn Green, Floyd, and José Valentín will provide the occsional pop and drive in runs with x-base hits.

It comes down to NYM's hitting & LAD's starting pitching in this closely matched series. Mets' home-field advantage will give them the home-crowd support they need and push them past the west-coast forebear-club. LAD's just-better-than-average offense won't be shut out by the Mets. Pitching is all that matters in the playoff. Mets' "amazin'" bullpen won't be much of a use if they trail on the scoreboard. LAD's better starters will give them the series winning factor.

COWBOY UP's PICK: LAD in 5

AP's Ben Walkee's A-to-Z List for the Playoff

2006-10-02T18:27:00.002-04:00

A look at the playoffs, from A-to-Z

Just make to make a note that the high-paid playerin baseball, A-Rod is batting 6th in the 1st game of the Divisional Series vs. DET... This guy may just have to pull off another "Bush-League" (credit to Curt Schilling) play to make himself famous in the post-season records.

Playoff Snapshot - AL

2006-10-02T17:32:00.000-04:00

OAK vs. MIN (reg. season head-to-head record: MIN 6-4)
Game 1: at MIN
Tue, Oct 3 - 1:05 pm EDT
B. Zito vs. J. Santana
Game 2: at MIN
Wed, Oct 4 - 1:05 pm EDT
D. Haren vs. B. Bonser
Game 3: at OAK
Fri, Oct 6 - 4:05 pm EDT
*Game 4: at OAK
Sat, Oct 7 - TBA * - If necessary
*Game 5: at MIN
Sun, Oct 8 - TBA * - If necessary

MIN is carrying its strong momentum from winning AL Central into the Divisional Series vs. OAK. Santana will be tough to beat at home for the A's in the 1st game (17GS, 12W, 119inn, 2.19ERA, .98WHIP & .216 opp. AVG). Considering Johan only has faced OAK once in the regular season, in which he won with dominance (8inn, 2H, no BB, 9K, 1ER), Athletics need to take Gm. 2 in MINvs. Bonser if they want to have a chance of winning the series.

Haren has success pitching at MIN's MetroDome this season, 2GS with a win (14inn, 12H, 7ER, 2HR, 11K, 4.50ERA, 1.00WHIP, & .222 opp AVG). He has a good enough arsenal to win a game for OAK in MIN. In 3 gms vs. MIN overall, Dan pitched 20inn, gave up only 15 hits & 4BBs with 3.15ERA & .95WHIP. Also, the fact that he's facing a rookie pitcher in Bonser gives him another edge in this critical game for OAK in the series.

OAK's bats have to come alive in this series, simply because of the style MIN plays - NL-like small ball with some steals on the base path (Castillo, the lead-off hitter, Punto, and Hunter are the Twins base-stealers). A's station-to-station base-running style will need some key-hits from Thomas, Chávez & Bradley. Patient hitters like Kendall & Swisher won't be getting the BB they have been looking for all season vs. the Twins pitching staff.

Another key factor in the series is MIN's closer, Joe Nathan. He has been literally unhittable all-season (68 1/3 inn, 38H, only 3HRs, 95K, 16BB, 12ER, 1.58ERA, .79WHIP, & .158 opp. AVG). OAK won't be likely to rally late in the games vs. this stud (even if they do, it won't happen more than one time, unless Nathan just collapsed or vanished altogether).

MIN's home-advantage in the series gives them a big edge because of the white-ceiling dome & Cy Young candidate, Johan Santana pitching the 1st & 5th game at home (if necessary) in the series. OAK will have to get hits in situations that they have an edge, whether it be the middle-relief pitchers or runners on with middle-line-up hitters up. A's could win the series, just not an easy one for them to pull out starting on the road.

COWBOY UP's PICK: MIN in 4

DET vs. NYY (reg. season head-to-head record: NYY 5-2)
Game 1: at NYY
Tue, Oct 3 - 8:05 pm EDT
N. Robertson vs. C. Wang
Game 2: at NYY
Wed, Oct 4 - 8:05 pm EDT
J. Verlander vs. M. Mussina
Game 3: at DET
Fri, Oct 6 - 8:05 pm EDT
*Game 4: at DET
Sat, Oct 7 - TBA * - If necessary
*Game 5: at NYY
Sun, Oct 8 - TBA * - If necessary

DET is going into the post-season with a 5-game losing streak that includes a sweep by Kansas City Royals at home! NYY clinched the AL East division early with the fallout of BOS, but the club hasn't been at its best late, especially in the last 2 weeks of Sep. DET just doesn't look so tough at this point and it's predicted as a underdog vs. NYY with home-field advantage.

Wang has been an All-Star all-season with his unhittable sinkers. His #'s at home are impressive & should get the attention of Tigers hitters (17GS, 118 2/3inn, 11W, 112H, 27BB, 3.03ERA, 1.17WHIP, & .253 opp. AVG) . Robertson is a solid pitcher, who is often overlooked. However, facing NYY's best starter on the road puts him at a significant disadvantage (2GS, 15 2/3inn, 20H, 8ER, 4BB, 4.60ERA, 1.53WHIP, .313 opp. AVG) for a DET team craving for a win. Wang & the "murder-row" line-up should get a W for the home crowd in the 1st game.

Verlander, the Rookie of the Year candidate has amazing stuff (98-mph fastballs & nice off-speed pitches). He hasn't done well vs. NYY this season in one chance, though (5inn, 7H, 6ER, 1HR, 4BB, 10.80ERA & 2.20WHIP). Mussina, NYY's Gm. 2 starter, has faced some minor injuries and having a better than his usual-Moose year (197 1/3inn, 172K, 35BB, 3.51ERA, 1.11WHIP, & .241 opp. AVG). Having to pitching at home should give him & NYY the edge to take two in the series.

DET's soft-playing lately & weaker pitching rotation vs. NYY just don't seem good enough to past the MLB-leading run-producing team. Mike & Mad Dog on The Fan radio has been calling for a sweep by the ~$200mil. payroll club with Tigers performing like a kitten the last few weeks. Bonderman or Rogers (both pitched in DET's last regular-season game) will start in Gm. 3 vs. Randy Johnson, if he's feeling alright. Tigers may just not embarrass themselves in front of their home crowd in Gm. 3 and get a W after an impressive run during the regular season that surprised most critics. Tigers will need their starting pitchers to hold down the NYY's hitters and use their strong relief pitchers as their edge.

COWBOY UP's PICK: NYY in 4

ESPN's Olney's Top 20 Weapons in October List

2006-10-01T20:42:00.000-04:00

20 best postseason weapons

Any baseball people knows that pitching wins in the post-season. Watch out the power-arms of Johan Santana and Mariano Rivera.

Some playoff teams are really hoping that they have more pitchers to go to at this point (yes, Mets is one of those teams).

What A Finish -- it's PLAYOFF time!

2006-10-01T20:21:00.000-04:00

MIN sneaked into AL Central Championship seat with a win & a loss from DET today, last regular-season day. DET lost 5 in a row going into post-season (not to mention getting swiped by KC at home). Twins gained as much momentum as it could possibly get going into October to face OAK.

HOU disappointingly missed the playoff after a tremendous run in September. With a loss on Sat. that Andy Pettitte started on 4-day rest & STL winning their game, Astros' magical post-season chase slowly faded away. STL held on to keep its NL Central title without much grace, nor solid performance in Sep. It'd be interesting to see how far Cardinals can go into October with its struggling ball club.

SD won the NL West division ahead of LA only because of better head-to-head record, both clubs have 88 wins and won their last regular-season game on Sunday. (LAD won 7 in a row & SD won 2 straight to wrap up the season) NL West may be the strongest division and both SD & LAD will be solid contenders in post-season. (more on NYM & its problems in another discussion)

Check out each playoff franchise's World Series Championship history:

Last time they won it all
The Red Sox won in 2004 for their first title since 1918, and the White Sox won in 2005 for their first since 1917. There will be none of that profound drought-busting this year, because the Cubs (1908) again aren't a factor. But because that has been the trend, it still is worth noting the prospects for ending some relatively notable waits.

Padres: Never. They were one of the four expansion clubs in 1969, so that's 36 years without one (excluding the 1994 strike year). San Diego lost to the Tigers in 1984 and was swept by the Yankees in 1998.

Cardinals: 1982. Bruce Sutter closed it out against Milwaukee. This is the longest world championship drought in the rich Redbird history, surpassing the time before the first title. They lost subsequent trips in 1985, 1987 and 2004.

Tigers: 1984. Joel Zumaya was born a couple weeks after Sparky Anderson's Tigers beat the Padres for Motown's last World Series title. Detroit has not been back to the World Series.

Mets: 1986. It was Mookie Wilson's dribbler through Bill Buckner's legs that allowed a Game 6 and then led to a clincher the next night against Boston. The Mets made it back in the 2000 Subway Series but lost in five.

Dodgers: 1988. Kirk Gibson's miracle homer off Dennis Eckersley was the key blow against Oakland. No World Series appearances since then.

Athletics: 1989. Those were the days when Oakland was expected to be there every year, their second of three consecutive trips to the Fall Classic. It was the only one they won during that stretch, a sweep of the Giants remembered mostly because of the tragic Loma Prieta earthquake that created a delay between the first and second games in the Bay Area. The A's haven't been back in the World Series since, and during this decade have had trouble getting over a hump in early rounds.

Twins: 1991. Gene Larkin's single in the 10th won Game 7 of an unforgettable World Series against Atlanta. Minnesota hasn't been back.

Yankees: 2000. It was the third title in a row and No. 26 in all, by far the most in baseball. The Bombers then lost to Arizona on Luis Gonzalez's single in the seventh inning of Game 7 a year later, and they were shocked at home by Josh Beckett and Florida in a decisive Game 6 in 2003. This is something of a World Series appearance drought for the Yanks, who have gone consecutive years without being in one for the first time since 1995.

Here is the official 2006 Playoff schedule:

Tuesday, Oct. 3

ALDS Game 1: Oakland at Minnesota, 1 p.m. ET (ESPN)
NLDS Game 1: St. Louis at San Diego, 4 p.m. ET (ESPN)
ALDS Game 1: Detroit at NY Yankees, 8 p.m. ET (FOX)

Wednesday, Oct. 4

ALDS Game 2: Oakland at Minnesota, 1 p.m. ET (ESPN)
NLDS Game 1: Los Angeles at NY Mets, 4 p.m. ET (ESPN)
ALDS Game 2: Detroit at NY Yankees, 8 p.m. ET (ESPN)

Thursday, Oct. 5

NLDS Game 2: St. Louis at San Diego, 4 p.m. ET (ESPN)
NLDS Game 2: Los Angeles at NY Mets, 8 p.m. ET (FOX)

Friday, Oct. 6

ALDS Game 3: Minnesota at Oakland, 4 p.m. ET (ESPN)
ALDS Game 3: NY Yankees at Detroit, 8 p.m. ET (ESPN)

Saturday, Oct. 7

NLDS Game 3: San Diego at St. Louis, TBA
NLDS Game 3: NY Mets at Los Angeles, TBA
ALDS Game 4: *Minnesota at Oakland, TBA
ALDS Game 4: *NY Yankees at Detroit, TBA

Sunday, Oct. 8

NLDS Game 4: *San Diego at St. Louis, TBA
NLDS Game 4: *NY Mets at Los Angeles, TBA
ALDS Game 5: *Oakland at Minnesota, TBA
ALDS Game 5: *Detroit at NY Yankees, TBA

Monday, Oct. 9

NLDS Game 5: *St. Louis at San Diego, TBA
NLDS Game 5: *Los Angeles at NY Mets, TBA

* -- if necessary

AP's Mike Fizpatrick on 20-gm Winners (The Lack Of)

2006-10-01T03:47:00.000-04:00

Absence of 20-game winners: emerging trend or statistical anomaly?

Interesting, yet, commonsensical, because of the 5-game/man rotation system & pitch count limits in today's game. Young guns like Carlos Zambrano & Johan Santana got the rubber arms to pitch over 240+ inn a season and that give them better shots at winning 20. Winning 20 games is like climbing the Everest. If someone can do it, they are looked upon as some greats in our lifetime now. Is that why Bartolon won the Cy Young without contest last season with 21 wins?!

AL Central Update

2006-10-01T03:16:00.000-04:00

DET lost to KC tonight after MIN lost to CHW earlier today. Both teams got 95 Ws. This is the most competitive AL division, for sure. (CHW got 90 wins as the 3rd place; just don't count in KC as part of the most competitive division calculation)

ONE LAST GAME left to determine the AL Central tiltle (DET has to lose & MIN has to win, in order for Twins to win division title; if MIN loses, DET wins division title, regardless of the result of this last game):

KC @ DET
1:05 pm EDT J. Bonderman vs. O. Pérez

CHW @ MIN
2:10 pm EDT S. Baker vs. J. Vázquez

Central	W	L	Pct	GB	Home	Road	East	Cent	West	Streak	L10
x-Detroit (1)	95	66	.590	--	46-34	49-32	16-17	45-29	19-17	Lost 4	5-5
x-Minnesota	95	66	.590	--	53-27	42-39	22-13	40-35	17-16	Lost 2	5-5
Chi White Sox	90	71	.559	5.0	49-32	41-39	17-17	40-35	19-15	Won 3	5-5
Cleveland	77	84	.478	18.0	43-37	34-47	18-14	35-40	16-20	Won 3	7-3
Kansas City	61	100	.379	34.0	34-47	27-53	12-25	26-47	13-20	Won 2	3-7

Tigers' JB can prove his potential as a true ace in the last regular season game. Odalis has been bad all season, that's why he got traded to the Royals...

Young prospect Baker can earn himself a solid rotation spot for next year with the division crown in reach. Javier has been given up lots of runs and hasn't won a game since Aug. 10. MIN has a good chance to take this last game. Twins just have to hope the Royals bat come alive, really alive against DET & take the last game from Tigers.

Gotta love the playoff race!!

Official MLB Playoff Scenario Note

Put In Your Vote for MVP on ESPN...

2006-09-30T20:35:00.000-04:00

HERE, on the SportsNation MVP Tracker!!

It's not the "official" ballot, of course. It allows you, the fan to speak your mind, though. Go vote!

Voting Results as of 9/28:

Sept. 28

1. Ryan Howard -- 63.9%
2. Albert Pujols -- 26.0%
3. Carlos Beltran -- 10.0%

1. Justin Morneau -- 62.3%
2. Derek Jeter -- 28.7%
3. David Ortiz -- 4.2%
4. Frank Thomas -- 3.6%
5. Jermaine Dye -- 0.8%

ESPN Page2's David Schoenfield on AL MVP

2006-09-30T20:31:00.000-04:00

MLB's big questions answered

Mauer is emerging as more of a MVP candidate than Morneau in the last couple of weeks in the media, apparently. Twins may not be able to win AL Central now with one last game left tomorrow. MIN's accomplishment this season should not be overlooked, nonetheless.

Someone start making those "Mauer 4 MVP" t-shirts!!!

Down the Wire - Playoff Race

2006-09-30T20:30:00.000-04:00

In AL Central, MIN & DET are currently tied, and DET holds the tiebreaker advantage with a better head-to-head record vs. MIN (11-8). (MIN lost on Sat. & DET is playing KC now, game-in-progrss)

SD & LAD will both make the playoff. The only question left is who wil be the NL West Champ & Wild Card. SD has the better head-to-head record vs. LAD (5-13).

More on official tie-breaker notes.

• If two clubs from the same division are tied but both assured of participating in the postseason, then the first tie-breaker would be their 2006 season-series to determine which club is the division champion and which club is the Wild Card.
• If three clubs finish the season with the same winning percentage and one team will be a division winner and another will be the Wild Card, the games will be played as follows:
» The two teams tied for the division lead will play the one-game tie-breaker, with the winner being declared the division champion.
» The losing team will then play the club from the other division for the Wild Card.

Yahoo!'s Passan on End of Season Awards

2006-09-29T11:55:00.000-04:00

Taking a mulligan on awards

Passan picked Jeter & Pujlos as the AL & NL MVP, respectively. He gave his reasons, and they are not bad. CBU will cover NL Cy Young & ROY awards in another blog. They probably won't agree with Jeff's picks, this much promised.

ESPN's Stark on Overall League Competitiveness

2006-09-28T10:29:00.000-04:00

MLB beats NFL in parity debate

Stark appeared on Mike&Mike on ESPN Radio yesterday and offered some interesting insights about the competitive parity among teams in MLB. His blog published later in the day covers his findings.

"If the Cardinals win the NL Central and the Phillies win the NL wild card, eight of the top 10 payrolls in MLB will miss the playoffs this year. The last time that happened: 1993 (the final season in which only four teams made the postseason).

In the meantime, the Nos. 17 (Padres), 19 (Twins) and 21 (A's) payrolls are all going to make the playoffs (with lower payrolls combined than the Yankees). The Reds (No. 22) are still breathing. And good old No. 30 (the Marlins) just finished scaring the living crappola out of the NL wild-card field."

It's good as a fan to know that teams with the bigger payroll are not necessarily the better teams (at least in the context of making the playoff, that's all it matters, isn't it?). As long as your team doesn't make any less-than-intelligent personnel decisions (i.e. draft, free agent, trade, etc.), they can win! Look at DET & MIN this season... As long as the team has some talents (young ones from drafts, especially), they can do something on the field. That may be ATL, ARI, & FLA in NL & CLE & LAA in AL in the next couple of seasons.

Mets In Trouble & Don't Vote for Pedro

2006-09-28T10:19:00.000-04:00

Mets' Martinez may miss playoff opener
"Slowed this time by an ailing calf, Martinez said he's got no confidence in his pitches and all but conceded that he won't start in Game 1 of the NL playoffs next week -- if he's able to pitch at all in the opening round."

ESPN's Olney summed it up the best:
Pedro had nothing
"Pedro Martinez was absolutely terrible in his last regular season outing last night, and he said if he were the manager, the decision whether to start him in Game 1 would be easy: He wouldn't do it. I agree, and in fact, if I were the Mets, I'd line up Pedro as the Game 4 starter, after seeing him throw last night. No velocity, no command, nothing. If the Mets wanted to, they could actually drop him out of the playoff rotation altogether and use Orlando Hernandez, Tom Glavine, Steve Trachsel and John Maine, but I'd still want to give Pedro the ball, to see if he could rise to the moment."

Mets will have to look hard into how they are going to approach their 1st round rotation in the playoff. Glavine isn't at his best at this point, either. Does any team really want El Duque or Steve Trachsel as your Game 1 stater?!

ESPN's Jayson Stark on .099 batting average

2006-09-27T22:05:00.000-04:00

The Antonio Perez Line

It's ironic to see OAK, the MoneyBall team that cherishes walks and OBP having a guy who hits .099AVG & .180OBP all season. Not that Antonio Pérez was called up to be with the major league team for a week, not for a month, but he's been on the OAK's 25-man roster since Opening Day! He had had 91ABs this season; he's a full-time player. Pérez was traded from LAD to OAK with Milton Bradley for Andre Ethier (whom has been discussed here in CUB) at end of '05.

Antonio has nice hands and good defensive skills, which are presumably what A's wanted out of him. His bat all season has just made history according to Stark's article. OAK has Keith Ginter, a 2B and can play some 3B, who played with MIL before traded to OAK in its AAA affiliate. Ginter is not the kind of gloves-man Pérez is, but is not exactly a late-career Chuck Knoblauch or a Jason Giambi at 2B or 3B. OAK could have opted to have Ginter on its roster. The reason being that Eric Chávez has been struggling at the plate much of the season and he has had injuries on both of his arms. Pérez had more experience coming into this season at 3B than a solid-hitting Ginter. D'Ángelo Jiménez is another IF OAK has, but again, he is more of a 2B / SS than 3B. OAK did promote a minor leaguer, 2B / SS Mike Rouse earlier in the season, but he isn't a 3B (he was picked up by CLE after designated for assignment later). OAK doesn't have another solid option at 3B behind Chávez in its minor system (in AAA, that is; there are good reasons why teams don't want to bring up AA players too fast). The lack of depth at 3B for OAK is a problem, and why they just stuck with Antonio all season.

OAK has had problems with inconsistent offense productions from its IFs. All of its IFs under-performed offensively: Chávez, Mark Ellis, Bobby Crosby, and Dan Johnson (in case you're wondering, that was their Opening Day IF lineup). Others have to give OAK lots of credits for managing the problem by juggling its lineup (like shifting Swisher to 1B & using Scutaro at SS). OAK is 5th in OBP and has the 3rd most walks behind heavy-offense teams, NYY & BOS! Antonio's .099AVG didn't really hurt them that much, after all.

AL MVP - Update: ESPN: Rob Neyer

2006-09-27T18:22:00.000-04:00

Jeter the best choice for AL MVP, Neyer's mailbag article.

"Is Jeter clearly the MVP this season? He is not. Here are VORPs (value over replacement player) and win shares for my top five candidates, and two others often mentioned ...

         VORP  WS
Hafner   81.4  24
Ortiz    73.3  27
Jeter    73.0  31
Sizemore 71.2  24
Mauer    63.3  29
Morneau  52.1  27
Thomas   40.3  21

VORP incorporates defensive position, but not skill. Win shares consider defensive value. Jeter is not a good shortstop, but he does get credit for playing shortstop well enough to ... well, for playing well enough to play. If you know what I mean. Jeter currently ranks No. 1 in the American League in win shares and No. 3 in VORP, and nobody else can claim a combination as impressive. In my opinion, the only obvious alternative to Jeter is Joe Mauer, who takes a hit in both measures because, as a catcher, he plays only five or six times per week. If you want to argue that Jeter's not "valuable" because the Yankees have a big lead, Justin Morneau is your guy. As for Morneau ... yeah, he's a great hitter. But, umm, guys? He's 18th in the league in on-base percentage, sixth in the league in slugging average, seventh in OPS. He's a first baseman. A decent first baseman, but a first baseman nonetheless. Essentially, a vote for Morneau over Mauer is an argument that nothing matters except driving in runs for a postseason team. Granted, that's always been a popular argument. I don't find it particularly compelling."

VORP

#	NAME	TEAM	POS	LG	YEAR	PA	PA%	AVG	OBP	SLG	SB	CS	MLVr	PMLVr	VORPr	MLV	PMLV	VORP
1.	Albert Pujols	SLN	1b	NL	2006	612	10.1%	.330	.431	.664	6	2	.545	0.399	0.577	77.5	56.7	82.1
2.	Travis Hafner	CLE	dh	AL	2006	564	9.2%	.308	.439	.659	0	0	.523	0.490	0.625	67.9	63.6	81.1
3.	Ryan Howard	PHI	1b	NL	2006	678	10.8%	.316	.420	.670	0	0	.499	0.353	0.527	76.2	54.0	80.5
4.	Derek Jeter	NYA	ss	AL	2006	697	11.1%	.341	.414	.483	32	5	.261	0.310	0.479	41.0	48.7	75.4
5.	Miguel Cabrera	FLO	3b	NL	2006	656	10.9%	.335	.427	.565	9	6	.430	0.362	0.487	66.6	56.0	75.4
6.	David Ortiz	BOS	dh	AL	2006	674	10.7%	.287	.407	.637	1	0	.387	0.351	0.489	58.9	53.4	74.4
7.	Grady Sizemore	CLE	cf	AL	2006	732	11.9%	.290	.376	.534	22	4	.231	0.260	0.414	39.0	43.7	69.7
8.	Lance Berkman	HOU	1b	NL	2006	621	10.2%	.316	.419	.622	3	2	.446	0.323	0.480	64.1	46.3	69.0
9.	Miguel Tejada	BAL	ss	AL	2006	689	11.4%	.332	.380	.505	6	2	.236	0.281	0.413	37.8	45.2	66.4
10.	Carlos Beltran	NYN	cf	NL	2006	595	9.8%	.275	.385	.598	17	3	.325	0.324	0.473	44.8	44.8	65.4
11.	Jim Thome	CHA	dh	AL	2006	598	9.7%	.290	.418	.604	0	0	.368	0.336	0.470	50.7	46.4	64.8
12.	Carlos Guillen	DET	ss	AL	2006	599	10.0%	.317	.399	.524	20	9	.279	0.323	0.457	39.5	45.8	64.7
13.	Joe Mauer	MIN	c	AL	2006	592	9.8%	.349	.432	.503	8	3	.324	0.365	0.467	44.8	50.5	64.6
14.	Jermaine Dye	CHA	rf	AL	2006	607	9.8%	.316	.386	.619	7	3	.371	0.322	0.460	51.9	45.1	64.3
15.	Vladimir Guerrero	ANA	rf	AL	2006	664	11.0%	.328	.381	.551	15	5	.305	0.260	0.404	47.5	40.4	63.0
16.	Chase Utley	PHI	2b	NL	2006	713	11.4%	.310	.379	.528	13	4	.241	0.255	0.389	38.7	40.9	62.4
17.	Manny Ramirez	BOS	lf	AL	2006	554	8.8%	.318	.437	.612	0	1	.434	0.363	0.495	54.3	45.4	61.9
18.	Vernon Wells	TOR	cf	AL	2006	659	10.9%	.306	.360	.550	16	4	.215	0.241	0.387	33.1	37.2	59.5
19.	Jose Reyes	NYN	ss	NL	2006	691	11.4%	.301	.353	.491	63	17	.156	0.179	0.357	25.1	28.8	57.2
20.	Garrett Atkins	COL	3b	NL	2006	668	10.9%	.322	.398	.551	3	0	.289	0.221	0.357	44.6	34.1	55.2
21.	Matt Holliday	COL	lf	NL	2006	642	10.5%	.330	.389	.589	9	5	.336	0.237	0.368	49.9	35.2	54.6
22.	Justin Morneau	MIN	1b	AL	2006	641	10.6%	.325	.381	.570	3	3	.311	0.193	0.365	46.6	28.9	54.6
23.	David Wright	NYN	3b	NL	2006	645	10.6%	.310	.381	.531	20	5	.268	0.200	0.351	40.2	30.0	52.6
24.	Nick Johnson	WAS	1b	NL	2006	628	10.3%	.290	.428	.520	10	3	.322	0.176	0.358	46.9	25.7	52.2
25.	Brian Mccann	ATL	c	NL	2006	475	7.8%	.332	.389	.569	2	0	.353	0.375	0.470	38.9	41.3	51.8

Win Shares

Year	Last	First	Tm	Lg	Pos	Batting	Pitching	Fielding	ExpWS	WSP	WSAB	Total WS	CWS
2006	Jeter	D	NYA	AL	SS	27.1	0.0	4.5	17	.903	19	31	276
2006	Mauer	J	MIN	AL	C	20.0	0.0	8.6	15	.945	18	29	58
2006	Ramirez	M	BOS	AL	OF	26.2	0.0	2.0	14	.990	18	28	338
2006	Ortiz	D	BOS	AL	DH	27.1	0.0	0.1	12	1.067	18	27	135
2006	Morneau	J	MIN	AL	1B	24.8	0.0	1.8	16	.789	15	27	46
2006	Dye	J	CHA	AL	OF	23.2	0.0	2.6	15	.824	15	26	135
2006	Ibanez	R	SEA	AL	OF	21.6	0.0	3.1	17	.710	12	25	101
2006	Sizemore	G	CLE	AL	OF	20.3	0.0	3.5	18	.647	11	24	54
2006	Santana	J	MIN	AL	SP	-0.1	24.0	0.0	12	.973	17	24	104
2006	Thome	J	CHA	AL	DH	23.9	0.0	0.0	11	1.049	16	24	306

Cowboy Up's Take:
Neyer is a stats guy and a stronger believer in SABR #'s like Win Share & VORP, which are great indication stats. Jeter has a case in regard of WS & VORP over Mauer & Morneau, as shown above. Does he deserve the AL MVP from these stats that he's put up all season? Yes, although, like Neyer noted, "he is not [clearly]the MVP this season". The award is awarded based on subjective slection, nonetheless. If MIN overtakes DET in the last 6gms of the season & wins AL Central, Mauer & Morneau should be much credited. Whether the AL Central Champion will help either of the Twins to win the MVP, it's a tough call. Morneau is Cowboy Up Baseball's MVP, simply because he lived the definition of "Cowboy Up" in critical times of his team & performed the way that exceeds expectaions.

On Tradesports.com, where people (traders) bid & sell future contracts on events, Jeter is heavily favored currently:

Contract BQty Bid Offer AQty Last Vol Chge

100

-45.0